Stormy Sunday Then Cooler

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The overall forecast seems to have simplified somewhat thanks to the whims of Karen. She was downgraded to a depression last night and the convection associated with that storm continued to be active well away from the center of circulation. As the front approaches from the west-northwest today, what is left of Karen will move eastward along the Gulf Coast area of Alabama and Northwest Florida with much of the heaviest rain remaining offshore. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for today along with high potential for dangerous rip currents along the beach areas from Slidell, LA, to Panama City, FL.

A line of showers and thunderstorms was advancing across Mississippi this morning with some weakening showing up on radar as well as on satellite imagery with warming of the cloud tops. This trend should continue into the morning hours as we see a decrease in the lightning activity. Daytime heating later today plus the addition of moisture from the tropics should help to increase the storm coverage later today. Weak upper lapse rates and relatively weak wind fields should preclude any widespread severe weather threat for us. However, we might see an isolated strong thunderstorm or two with damaging wind the biggest threat. Main threat for organized severe storms is well north of us primarily in Ohio as seen in the SPC’s slight risk area.

Rainfall with the storms should be in the range of 1 to 2 inches with most places on the lower side of that range. Flooding issues do not appear to be a problem for us today.

The front is forecast to move through Central Alabama today and tonight and should be well out of the area by daybreak on Monday. The current 60-degree dew points will be replaced by dew points in the 40s by Monday morning. The GFS and the ECMWF are both in good agreement on the overall movement of the front.

The upper low and trough will move quickly away Monday sweeping all of the precipitation and what’s left of Karen away from us. That will clear the way for a great week ahead with an upper ridge coming into play. Look for temperatures to be quite nice with lows mainly in the 50s and highs in the 70s. With the lows, we will see some spots on Monday and Tuesday mornings getting into the 40s – won’t that feel nice.

Our next weather system is on the board for next weekend, however, there is a big question as to whether or not it will get here. The upper ridge holds strongly in place as the main upper low is deflected to the northwest of us. The GFS suggests the front will have a hard time to get into our area, so for now it looks dry for Friday night football and any games on Saturday. We’re also going to have to be watching for the potential for some cold air damming or the wedge as the surface high becomes positioned off to the northeast of us.

Outside of Karen, the tropics remain quiet.

Looking out into voodoo, the GFS signals another weather system around the 16th and another one approaching around the 23rd, so the pattern appears to be fairly active even though October is our dries month.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Stay up with the Blog for updates as the current weather moves through our area. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather