Warm and Dry Part 2

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Despite the fact that a weak frontal boundary lies across the area, it looks like we’ll see another warm and dry day today much like yesterday with a few more clouds. Fog was fairly widespread and dense in spots along and northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor. The fog should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise with most dissipated by 8 am. It will be warm with highs climbing into the lower and mid 80s, about 6 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average for mid October.

The surface high will migrate northeast Monday and Tuesday as strong trough begins to come out of the Rockies. This should set up a wedge pattern, or cold air damming, so we’ll need to watch the forecast for the highs on Tuesday. It should be a little cooler with highs in the upper 70s if the wedge does develop. That strong trough will come out of the Rockies in two parts dragging a front into the Southeast US Wednesday and Thursday. There are some model timing issues as the GFS has tended to be a bit faster than the ECMWF by 6 to 12 hours. Looks like our best chance at some rain will come late Wednesday and into Thursday. Temperatures drop back to more seasonal values Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

The model differences continue into the weekend. Right now it looks dry for Friday and high school football, but the differences in the models really show up again on Saturday. The GFS holds off on returning precipitation to the area until Sunday while the ECMWF is more aggressive and brings rain back on Saturday. For now the forecast remains dry for the first half of the weekend but we may need to put some chance in for Saturday as we watch future model runs. Highs should be in the 70s as the bulk of the colder air remains well north of Alabama.

SPC only has a small area of slight risk for severe weather on Day 2 in the Central Plains with the main threat large hail and damaging wind. The tropics remain fairly quiet with only one area under scrutiny where upper level wind fields are not conducive for development of a tropical storm.

A peak into voodoo country reveals another frontal system with rain chances around the 23rd.

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Enjoy the marvelously warm Fall weather once again today. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather