Showers Today – Drier Tuesday

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Low clouds and moisture surged across Central Alabama overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. The combination of these surface features plus an upper trough that is swinging through the Mississippi River Valley should make for a relatively wet day across Alabama. While the radar was clean this morning, I expect to see showers develop this afternoon and last into the night.

Rainfall amounts should be fairly widespread, but the showery character of the rain will mean varying rainfall amounts. I think around 1 inch is what many may see, however, the deep moisture means that some spots could get heavy rains. Flash flooding might be an isolated issue for some locations because of the deep moisture available. Storms should be moving steadily, so it should not be an issue of a storm sitting over one spot.

The SPC has also outlooked a large area from New England to Northeast Alabama for a slight risk of severe storms. I think for us, the main issue could be damaging wind. The deep moisture will probably limit hail size though some marginally severe hail is possible.

The trough swings by tonight and Monday, so I think we’ll see showers move well south of Birmingham by early Monday. The greatest threat of storms will be along the Gulf Coast on Monday afternoon.

Drier air Monday and through Wednesday with dew points getting down into the 50s will make the weather feel really great for much of the mid-week time frame.

The GFS maintains an open troughiness over the area toward Thursday, but by Friday and new impulse riding through the westerlies is expected to enhance another trough over the eastern half of the country. This could mean another cold front approaching the area next Saturday and stalling out across Central Alabama if the GFS solution is correct.

Tropics remain quiet.

In the longer range, the GFS shows a huge upper ridge developing over the southern two-thirds of the Nation. This means heat by the middle of July. The GFS also shows some activity in the tropical Atlantic – probably all voodoo but we’ll be watching.

James Spann should be back with the next Weather Xtreme Video bright and early Monday morning. Have a great Sunday and God bless.

-Brian-

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