From the Storm Prediction Center…

This MCD covers areas from NE Louisiana through southern Mississippi and into West Central Alabama.

ACUS11 KWNS 291419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291418
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291418Z – 291615Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY TODAY…WITH
ISOLATED PULSE STORMS AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS PRODUCING DMGG
WINDS…HAIL…AND FLOODING. A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT LIX/LCH/JAN INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WILL BE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON…WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG.
CLEARING OBSERVED ON VIS IMAGERY IN LA/MS/AL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW AIRMASS TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE…WHILE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ASCENT FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NEAR THE COAST
AND ALSO NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF WILL FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS…ESPECIALLY AFTER THE ONSET OF THE GULF SEA BREEZE. VERY
MOIST SWLY TO WLY FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
PULSE SEVERE AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP. FAIRLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY…WITH NEAR
30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THIS IN ADDITION TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..HURLBUT.. 06/29/2008

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