Light Rain This Morning; Warmer This Week

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RADAR CHECK: We begin the day with some rain in scattered pockets across Alabama. Just before daybreak the heaviest rain was over parts of Etowah, Marshall, Cherokee, Calhoun, and Cleburne Counties in Northeast Alabama. The rain is moving east, and we expect it to end from west to east during the midday hours as a short wave moves east of the state. Rain amounts this morning will be generally under 1/4 inch.

We might begin to see some sun this afternoon as subsidence kicks in; the high today will be in the 68-72 degree range.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Warmer and dry weather is the story; we reach the mid to upper 70s tomorrow, with upper 70s Wednesday afternoon. The sky will be partly sunny both days, and nights will be mostly fair with lows in the 50s.

STORMY HALLOWEEN? A significant storm system will lift out of the Great Plains, bringing showers and storms to Alabama before the week is over. There is still model disagreement on timing, but I would say for now our main window for showers and storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday until 9:00 a.m. Friday. Yep, this means trick or treaters would get wet this year in at least parts of Alabama, although there is still some hope the stronger storms hold off until after midnight Thursday night.

SPC (the Storm Prediction Center) has the northwest corner of Alabama in a severe weather risk for this event. After a review of the parameters, for now it looks like a pretty marginal threat for our state.

*The surface low is far to the north, over the Great Lakes
*The higher bulk shear values in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere are north of Alabama
*The main low level jet (50 knots or higher at 850 mb, or around 5,000 feet) is mostly north of here, although we do see some 50 knot barbs in model output over North Alabama.
*Instability values are very marginal, with surface based CAPE values under 500 j/kg

Looks like a potent line of storms will move into Northwest Alabama late Thursday, but the storms should weaken as they move southeast during the night. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely, with some spots possibly getting a little more.

Just one note… sometimes models underestimate severe weather parameters 3-4 days in advance, so we will watch things carefully as the event gets closer. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

Showers and storms should end from northwest to southeast during the day Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks great with sunny days, clear nights, and a cooling trend. Highs drop into the 60s, and we will be down around 40 degrees by early Sunday, with 30s for the colder pockets. Cool and dry weather continues into early next week.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the vast Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Cooler sea surface temperatures over the northern Gulf really mean our season is done; anything that forms in November would be out in the deep tropics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Mike Bettes of The Weather Channel will be our guest tonight; the show begins at 8:30 pm, and you can watch on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I will be over in Anniston today doing a weather program for a senior adult group; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather