Wet Weekend in Central Alabama

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Temperatures moderated nicely yesterday with an abundance of sunshine that was occasionally filtered by passing streaks of high cirrus clouds. With a surface high settling into the Southeast, we’ll see another dry day as clouds begin to increase with the development of a storm system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The regional radar view already shows the beginning of development in the western Gulf.

Central Alabama should stay dry until late morning or early afternoon as the upper short wave moves across Texas on Saturday. The surface low will form in the Northwest/North Central Gulf and track northeastward across extreme Southeast Alabama and southern Georgia reaching a position near the Virginia coast at midday on Sunday. This should place the best chances for wet weather in Central Alabama from early afternoon Saturday through Sunday morning. Based on the track of the low, a band of heavier rain could occur across southern Alabama. This might lead to some localized flash flooding issues since this is the same area that received between 3 and 6 inches of rain with the last system. Widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts will occur across Central and South Alabama with perhaps 3 to 4 inches with the heavier band of rain. Clouds will be slow to depart on Sunday, so I do not expect to see much sunshine.

Interesting to note that the GFS and the ECMWF models are in good agreement with the overall development and placement of the weekend system. But the models diverge into next week.

With clouds and some moisture sticking around with the cold air, we could see very light precipitation on Monday in the form of snow flurries.

The upper level pattern flattens a little on Tuesday, but a strong short wave diving southward along the Rockies on Wednesday, January 1st, will generate another surface low over North Texas. The Gulf should open as we see a quick warmup with highs by Wednesday well into the 50s. But don’t get out the Bermuda shorts just yet, because that system will be followed with another plunge into the deep freeze. The GFS suggests that the cold air will arrive before the moisture is completely gone, so Thursday we might see the precipitation change over the snow flurries before ending. This type of changeover situation does not typically result in any kind of snow accumulation, plus we may well see timing adjustments on future model runs that would wipe out this possibility.

We stay in a northwesterly flow pattern for the first couple of days of 2014, so it will remain cold.

The long range, or voodoo country, outlook has been consistently cold, but the latest 06Z model run has seen a new twist to the pattern. The GFS is now building a ridge into the eastern half of the country by the 6th of January and then developing a trough along the Rocky Mountains by the 11th. If the pattern swings this way, the Southeast US and eastern half of the country would see quite a warm up around the 10th and 11th. But this is voodoo, and always suspicious when such a drastic change is predicted. Time will tell!!

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Your next Weather Xtreme Video will come on Saturday morning generally by 8 am or so. Be sure to catch Ashley Brand on ABC 3340 at 4, 5, 6, and 10 pm with the latest forecasts. I’ll be filling in for Ashley over the coming weekend. Have a wonderful day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather