Warming Process Begins Later Today

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ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING: Not as cold as yesterday, but cold enough. Here are some temperatures around daybreak across North/Central Alabama….

Black Creek (Etowah County) 8
Concord 9
Valley Head 10
Haleyville 11
Gadsden 12
Coker 12
Cullman 13
Anniston 13
Fort Payne 12
Tuscaloosa 15
Birmingham 15
Trussville 15

No record low this morning… Birmingham’s record low for January 8 is 7, set in 1942.

ABOVE FREEZING LATER TODAY: We should rise above freezing late this morning for the first time since Sunday night; expect a good supply of sunshine today with a high around 40 degrees.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Tonight will not be as cold as recent nights; our low early tomorrow will be in the mid 20s for most communities, and we rise into the low 50s tomorrow with of sun and clouds.

TO THE WEST: A winter weather advisory covers much of North and Central Arkansas, and eastward into the Memphis area as an impulse is expected to bring freezing rain to the Mid-South. This won’t be a major ice storm, but there clearly could be enough ice to generate travel issues, so if you are headed to Memphis or Little Rock, be aware of this.

WET START TO OUR WEEKEND: The sky becomes mostly cloudy on Friday as moisture levels rise. I guess a shower could break out somewhere, but I still think the daytime hours will be mostly rain-free; we warm into the upper 50s Friday afternoon.

Rain will move into Alabama late Friday night with a sharp upper trough. Looks like the main window for rain will come from midnight Friday night through 12:00 noon Saturday. There might be some thunder with very good dynamic support, but there isn’t much instability, and there is no risk of severe weather. Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely during this twelve hour window.

Drier and cooler air moves in Saturday afternoon. Temperatures might fall a bit during the afternoon hours with a brisk northwest wind, but at some point we should reach the low 60s Saturday.

SUNDAY: Hate to play the flip flop game… model consistency has been horrible, but now we have good agreement, and high confidence. The idea of the upper trough coming at us in two phases is now off the table. The GFS and the ECMWF models show one strong, phased trough on Saturday with the rain, but now they are bone dry Sunday, and we have removed rain from the forecast. Sunday now looks partly to mostly sunny and a little cooler with a high in the 50s.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will be cool and dry Monday and Tuesday; there is some evidence of another shot of cold air at mid-week on Wednesday as highs drop into the low 40s, and it looks like we could very well visit the teens again by Thursday morning (January 16).

LONG RANGE: Yet another cold shot shows up around January 20, but after that the last 8 days of the month look relatively mild. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather