Warmer Weather For The Weekend

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WELCOME TO FRIDAY: We begin the day with temperatures in the 20s across the great state of Alabama; the day ahead won’t be as yesterday as most communities will rise into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.

WINTRY ISSUES TONIGHT? The very active southern branch of the jet stream will push another wave through Alabama tonight. Clouds will increase, and a little light precipitation could break out between 9:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m. Models have trended drier, there could be a few rain drops, ice pellets, or snow flakes tonight. Temperatures should be above freezing when the precipitation falls, generally speaking, and no significant impact is expected… much like the wave we saw yesterday.

WARMER WEEKEND: Tomorrow morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine, and we should reach the mid 50s. Sunday will be even warmer, with a high between 57 and 60 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

NEXT WEEK: More forecast challenges. The Euro (ECMWF) on Monday brings in a wave with a batch of light rain, while the GFS is completely dry. I think we need to side with the ECMWF on this one and mention at least some risk of scattered light rain Monday. The day will be cloudy with a high around 50 degrees.

The more significant system will impact the state Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface low forms in the Gulf in response to a rather energetic wave in the southern stream. Thermal fields suggest mostly rain for Alabama with this event, but let me say up front models won’t do well on a system 5 days in advance in a pattern like this. We will need to monitor thickness values for some snow potential Tuesday and Tuesday night over far North Alabama.

Then, on Wednesday, cold air damming (the “wedge”) will come into play as cold air drains down the mountains from the northeast U.S. Some very significant ice or snow will be possible over the Carolinas, and maybe even down into North Georgia. The Euro even hints at some issues for far Northeast Alabama Wednesday due to this cold layer. Again, no skill in being specific at this point.

We will just mention rain for now over North-Central Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday, and we will make adjustments as we get closer. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

Drier air returns by Thursday and Friday of next week.

STORM ALERT 2014: We had a great crowd at Gadsden City High School last night… our severe weather awareness tour comes to Calera High School in Shelby County next Thursday (February 13) at 6:30. This is the 17th year of the tour, and it is one way we get Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season.

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I will be speaking to a class at UAB this morning, then it is on to Snow Rogers Elementary in Gardendale for a weather program. This evening I will be live from the World of Wheels at the BJCC on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00. Not sure I will have time to post a new video this afternoon due to the busy schedule, but I will write a new discussion here on the blog by 4:00. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather