Hot & Mostly Dry

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The tropics are active, storms in the Southeast are nearly non-existent, and temperatures are flirting with the upper 90s across Alabama. Tim Coleman, er, excuse me, Dr. Tim Coleman has a very nice discussion below about the current heat. And along with that heat comes air quality issues. We remain in an air quality alert, Code Orange, for Jefferson and Shelby counties because of the relatively stagnant conditions today and Monday.

The general troughiness that has kept our temperatures suppressed a bit abates somewhat through Monday, but a new trough digs in on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing us better chances for showers than we’ve seen over the last several days. That trough sharpens up over the eastern third of the country just as the tropical disturbance moving through the Caribbean gets into the western Gulf. I am not saying it will turn northward since all of the computer models suggest a track across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Mexico. What I am saying is we’ve got to watch the pattern for any possible interaction between those two systems. I remember all too well Hurricane Elena in 1985 which was influenced by a trough moving across the US. It turned Elena toward Florida where it stalled for two days or so and then came back to strike the Mississippi coast. If the two systems get close enough, we’ll need to watch for some sort of interaction which could dramatically change the course of what may be the next tropical storm. Certainly something to watch.

The current model projections take the tropical disturbance into Mexico where they could get tremendous rainfall that will be responsible for flash flooding and mudslides.

As the trough pulls northeastward away from us on Thursday and Friday, moisture is left behind so some chance of showers will linger into next weekend. We remain in a flat pattern over the weekend, but a new trough digs into the eastern half of the country on Monday and Tuesday bringing another weak front and perhaps some increased rain chances for that week.

Bertha is finally back to a tropical storm and expected to become extratropical in the next couple of days.

NHC is not saying anything about it, but there is a very large cloud mass moving off the African continent which is the way Bertha was born, so that will bear some watching.

Thunderstorms were associated with an area of weak low pressure south-southeast of Bermuda. Conditions in that area do not appear to be conducive for any development now.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to move parallel to the North Carolina coast today and then out into the Atlantic on a line for the Canadian Maritimes. Satellite and radar presentations yesterday were a bit more impressive that what we see today, but those warm Gulf Stream waters could aide the storm though it is forecast to remain at tropical storm strength as it accelerates northeastward.

The longer range GFS keeps the trough over the eastern part of the country and the ridge in the west, so no signs on any really excessive heat outside of the next couple of days.

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James Spann will be back in the saddle tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I appreciate you staying tuned into the Blog and our video. Stay cool and do take the heat seriously. Have a great weekend and God bless.

-Brian-

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