Strong Storms Likely Thursday Night

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: While the sky is generally cloudy across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, we are not seeing much on radar, although some drizzle is now reported over the northwest counties. Temperatures are generally in the 60s.

A band of showers is expected to pass through the state tonight ahead of a surface front; the high resolution NAM hints the best chance of showers will come from 6:00 p.m. until midnight. Rain amounts should be mostly under a quarter an inch as the main upper support for the front is well to the north, and the moisture is relatively shallow.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Tomorrow looks like a beautiful day, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 60s as drier air briefly covers the northern counties of Alabama. Then, on Wednesday, the old front to the south moves northward as a warm front. This could kick off a few scattered showers Wednesday, but the rain shouldn’t be widespread or heavy. The high Wednesday will remain in the upper 60s.

STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT: Thursday will be very mild and breezy day with a mix of sun and clouds; the GFS is printing a high of 74 at Birmingham, within 4 degrees of the record high for February 20. A shower is possible during the day, but the main stormy period comes Thursday night. SPC has much of North and Central Alabama in a severe weather risk; the main threat continue to be the potential for strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds with storms in a linear mode ahead of the front.

But, bulk shear values are high, and a brief, isolated tornado is not out of the question, especially where there are breaks or kinks in the line.

The 12Z GFS is a little faster with the squall line, suggesting the main threat for strong storms will come from 6:00 p.m. Thursday until 3:00 a.m. Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Friday after the storms with a high around 60 degrees. At this point, the weekend looks mostly rain-free with a high between 60 and 63 both days. The 12Z GFS removed the Gulf wave and the chance of rain Sunday, but keep in mind there has been little model consistency in the Sunday situation. I will probably keep chance of showers going in the forecast for now on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Global models hint next week will be considerably colder across the Deep South, but just how cold, and how much precipitation falls is very much up for debate. A fast flow pattern like this is very difficult to resolve more than five days in advance.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Bill Bunting, Operations Branch Chief, Storm Prediction Center, will be the guest on this week’s show that will be produced at 8:30 CT tonight. You can watch it on “James Spann 24/7? on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the 4th and 5th graders at West Point Intermediate School in Cullman County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: mild, showers

Category: Alabama's Weather