Warm Today; Much Cooler Tomorrow

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BIG MID-WEEK CHANGES: We are projecting a high in the mid 70s across the great state of Alabama today; it will be one of the warmest days so far this year (warmest for Birmingham so far is 76 degrees recorded on March 2). We will enjoy some sunshine this morning, but clouds thicken late in the day ahead of a short wave over Texas. Rain should enter West-Central Alabama late this afternoon, spreading northeast tonight.

The high resolution NAM model hints that our main window for rain tonight will come from about 6:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight with the lead wave.

CHILLY WIND TOMORROW: Another band of showers likely tomorrow morning along a surface cold front. Rain amounts between this evening and midday tomorrow should average 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most communities; no severe weather issues.

Once the front passes tomorrow, temperatures will begin to fall, and north winds will really pick up. We will be in the 60s tomorrow morning, but then we fall through the 50s, possibly reaching the upper 40s by late afternoon. North winds will average 15-30 mph, and a wind advisory will be needed due to a very tight pressure gradient across the state.

The sky clears tomorrow night, and a freeze is likely by daybreak Thursday, with lows between 26 and 32 degrees for most communities.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will feature a sunny sky. Thursday will be very cool; the high will be only in the low 50s, and some places north of Birmingham won’t get out of the 40s despite sunshine in full supply. A light freeze is possible early Friday, but then we warm into the 60s Friday afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No doubt there will be some rain at times over the weekend, but forecast confidence in the details remains rather low due to model inconsistency. The 00Z GFS hints that Saturday will be the wettest day with occasional showers, followed by mostly dry weather on Sunday. But, the Euro shows the best chance of rain Saturday night, with lingering showers into Sunday.

At this point we will simply mention the risk of showers Saturday through Sunday, and better clarity in the situation will come tomorrow or Thursday. I don’t think the weekend will be a “wash-out”, and there is no risk of severe weather. Just keep in mind you will have to dodge some rain at times. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s both days.

NEXT WEEK: The first part of next week looks cool and dry; the high Monday will drop into the 50s, and we might be looking at potential for another light freeze early Tuesday morning of next week.

The good news is that we still see no sign of any big severe weather issues around here for the next 10 to 15 days. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I have a weather program this morning at Pinson Elementary School… then I will be speaking to the senior adults at Mt. Zion Baptist Church in Warrior. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: mild

Category: Alabama's Weather