Eyes On The Tropics

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The weather headline for the next seven days will be Fay… our weather looks pretty benign. Today will be dry with a high not too far from 90; it looks like we will need to mention a risk of scattered showers and storms tomorrow, but both the GFS and the NAM suggest Sunday and Monday will be bone dry, and if the 12Z models confirm this, we will remove the chance of scattered showers on those days.

The first half of next week is looking pretty dry as well with highs in the low 90s. All of the serious action will be east of here…

TROPICAL TROUBLE: All eyes will be on our developing tropical storm near Puerto Rico in coming days. The convection is still away from the lowest pressure this morning, and we also have to wonder about the interaction with Hispanolia; that is a very mountainous island that can disrupt the strongest hurricane. But, most models take the core of Fay just north of the island, to the Bahamas late in the weekend as a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone.

The best model blend takes Fay up through the Bahamas, just east of the Florida peninsula, with a turn to the north early next week. Then, steering currents collapse and anything goes. The GFDL seems to be on track, bending the system back toward the South Carolina coast by the middle of next week as a major hurricane. The slow movement could bring some serious flood issues to inland parts of the Carolinas, and maybe even the northeast part of Georgia next week.

The 00Z GFS is a big outlier, turning Fay back to the southwest after the north turn, across South Florida and into the Gulf. We discount this solution; it is not favored by climatology.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and additional thoughts.

Needless to say, all eyes will be on this storm in coming days.

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