Checking in with Fay

Not much change in thinking. The center is likley just north of Panama City, but that is up for debate. It is moving just north of west at 7. It will huge the coast and move up into southern Mississippi by tomorrow morning. Top winds still 45 mph. A new tornado warning around Perry, Florida, SE of Tallahassee. Tornado watches cover North Florida and southern Georgia. Flash flood warnings continue in the Tallahassee area, where radar shows 10-11 inch rainfall amounts are becoming common.

Pensacola and Perry had winds gusting to 31 mph (out of the north and southeast respectively) and Jacksonville had a gust to 32 mph.

Here is the 10 a.m. advisory on Fay…

WTNT31 KNHC 231438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

…FAY STILL DRENCHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE PANHANDLE…

AT 10 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA…INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES…160 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER
THE GULF COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA…AND EASTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA…AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…30.1 N…85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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