El Nino Winters

I wrote this way back on August 13…

“Almost every night on national news media outlets, we hear of “monster storms” with “80 million in the path” that are “unprecedented”. Today a new level of hyperbole has been introduced with a “Godzilla” El Nino.

The truth is that we are in a very significant El Nino cycle. But, understand we only have good ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phase data back to the 1950s, and there is much to learn. What does it mean for Alabama? El Nino winters here tend to be fairly wet, relatively mild, and occasionally stormy. We also have intrusions of shallow cold air at times, which can open the door for ice issues. But, long time readers know I am no fan of seasonal outlooks since there is very little skill in them. We will just have to wait and see…”

See the original post here.

The mild December we are having is no surprise here based on the current ENSO phase. And, what I wrote back in August stands for the rest of the winter. We will just have to watch for the occasional cold air shots that are shallow in January and February. I also have some concern the spring severe weather season could be more active than recent years (of course, it has been very quiet in recent years, anyway).

Looking ahead to Christmas, as noted in the morning forecast discussion in the post below this one, the eastern third of the nation will continue be pretty mild, while the cold air will be out west.

Remember, the last few winters in Alabama have been very cold, harsh, and they featured a number of very significant snow events. Understand this is a low latitude state; it doesn’t snow often here, and you sure can’t expect those kind of winters to continue on a consistent basis. We are overdue for a “mild” winter.

But, as the original post says, there is little skill in seasonal outlooks. We will see how it goes…

Tags: winter

Category: Alabama's Weather