Long Duration Severe Weather Threat Ahead

Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for graphics, maps, and more ideas on what is to come. A very busy period for those of us in the weather business in Alabama, but remember, severe weather outbreaks are pretty common here in November and December.

TONIGHT: Showers are possible tonight, and maybe even a thunderstorm in spots, but no severe weather is expected across the northern two-thirds of the state. Rain and storms will be more widespread near the Gulf Coast, where SPC (the Storm Prediction Center) maintains a “marginal” risk of severe weather.

POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT BEGINS TOMORROW: New model data this morning still supports the idea of a severe weather threat for Alabama tomorrow afternoon, into tomorrow night, and maybe even into the day Thursday. Dewpoints surge into the 67-70 degree range, and wind fields will increase as a dynamic upper trough gets closer. This is our current thinking…

TIMING: The risk of severe storms will begin roughly around 3:00 tomorrow afternoon, and will extend through tomorrow night, and into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, we will now have to open up an 18 hour window for severe storms; 3:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Thursday. Concerning individual storms, there is no way we can give specific start/stop times for any given community since the thunderstorms will be cellular in nature, rather scattered, and rather random.

Understand it won’t rain all 18 hours, and a decent part of that period could even be rain-free. But, where storms, they could become severe quickly.

PLACEMENT: SPC maintains an “enhanced” severe weather risk over North and West Alabama, with the standard “slight” risk for the rest of the state. A few strong tornadoes (F3 or greater) are possible in the enhanced area.

Please don’t get too caught up in the boundary between “enhanced” and “slight”. Thunderstorms don’t know about those lines… they are just a guideline. ALL of Alabama will have a chance of severe storms; the higher tornado threat is over the northern half of the state, and the best chance of a strong tornado or two is north and west of Birmingham.

MODES: In addition to tornadoes, thunderstorms could produce damaging winds, and large hail.

RAIN: Amounts of 1-3 inches are likely, probably not enough for any widespread flooding issues.

CONFIDENCE: Morning computer model data remains consistent, and confidence in the event is fairly high. No sign of any convection near the Gulf Coast that would disrupt the inflow and reduce the severe weather threat for the northern counties of Alabama.

WILL THIS BE LIKE APRIL 27, 2011? I actually choose not to answer that question any more. Of course, the answer is no; April 27, 2011 was a generational event. But please understand this; if all we have is one tornado in the entire state, and if that one tornado happens to come down your street, then that day is YOUR April 27.

CALL TO ACTION: If you are reading this, then you are aware of the situation and stay informed. My concern is for those who don’t pay attention; please tell your friends and neighbors about this threat. So many people are traveling this time of the year, making it harder to reach the masses. And, please see this post on things you need to think about and do in preparation for tomorrow’s severe weather threat. It answers questions about how to get warnings, apps, live coverage, etc.

THURSDAY: As noted above, severe storms remain possible Thursday, especially along and south of I-59. The tornado threat will be much lower, but not zero. And, it will be very warm for late December; we reach the mid 70s, close to the record high of 77 set in 1964.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Still warm. A surface boundary over far North Alabama lifts northward as a warm front, and we will be very close to record highs (the record high for December 25 at Birmingham is 74 set in 1987). Showers are possible, but a decent part of the day will be dry, and the sun might even poke out at times.

THE WEEKEND: The weather stays warm; highs in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday with more clouds than sun. A few scattered showers are possible both days, but nothing too widespread or heavy. But, strong system will form to the west, and will bring a huge snow event to West Texas, West Oklahoma, and up into parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

MORE STRONG STORMS: That system will push strong thunderstorms into Alabama late Sunday night into Monday morning, and we will have to monitor that system for severe weather potential. Thankfully it looks like it will coming through at a time when the air tends to be most stable, but we won’t be able to provide specific details about this one until later this week.

Cooler and drier air will follow for mid-week.

AT THE BEACH: Warm, unsettled weather continues through the weekend from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: ANC, storms

Category: Alabama's Weather