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Raw, Cold Day Ahead

| 6:16 am April 15, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MORE LIKE JANUARY: This won’t be a “Chamber of Commerce” kind of day around here as strong north winds of 15-30 mph usher in much colder air. Places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s today, and many communities to the north of these cities won’t get out of the 40s.

We begin the day with clouds and some drizzle; we will forecast gradual clearing this afternoon. But, it will be a raw day.

FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT: Most of Alabama is under a freeze warning for late tonight and early tomorrow. Not much change in our thinking; the sky will become clear tonight and the wind will die down, setting up a late season freeze.

The range tomorrow morning for most communities will be from around 25 to 35 degrees. The colder readings will be in valleys; some ridge tops will avoid a freeze with mid 30s, but even there frost is likely. It is possible some of the coldest places (like Black Creek and Valley Head) will reach the low 20s.

Most places across North/Central Alabama will be below freezing for about 3 to 4 hours. And, the record low for Birmingham tomorrow (April 16) of 32, set in 1983, is very much in danger. Growers will need to protect all tender plants and vegetation tonight.

On the positive side, it is likely this is the last freeze threat of the season around here.

A warming trend begins tomorrow afternoon with a sunny sky as we rise into the mid 60s, and upper 60s are likely Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will bring in the chance of rain showers statewide Friday. This won’t be a heavy rain event, and there won’t be any severe weather, but confidence is high there will be some rain at times during the day Friday, and possibly Friday night; Friday’s high will be around 70 degrees.

The news for the weekend is generally good. Both the GFS/ECMWF models are suggesting the chance of a shower Saturday is very small, and most places will be dry, and Sunday for now looks like a dry day with a decent amount of sun. Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels rise and a few showers are possible Monday and Tuesday, but it doesn’t look like a big rain event. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Clearing today in the zone from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, but windy and cool with a high in the low 60s. Lots of sun tomorrow with a high in the upper 60s on the immediate coast. A few widely scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, then expect mostly sunny weather over the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday on the coast will be in the low 70s, with mid 70s inland.

NEED HELP WITH YOUR WEATHER RADIO? We will be at Academy Sports on Skyland Blvd in Tuscaloosa tomorrow from 3:30 until 6:30… we will program your weather radio, or be glad to answer questions if you have them.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Busy day ahead… I have weather programs today at Paine Primary School in Trussville, and at Alexandria Elementary in Calhoun County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Much Colder Tomorrow

| 3:46 pm April 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL WET TONIGHT: A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of Central and South Alabama through tonight as more rain will fall tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Additional rain amounts of around one are likely, and some minor flooding issues are possible, but nothing like the big event we had a week ago in the Birmingham metro area.

The good news is that SPC dropped the severe weather risk for North and Central Alabama earlier this morning; the risk of severe storms for tonight is confined to the far southern counties of the state, where there is better instability.

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The rain will end from west to east after midnight. Clouds hang tough, so no chance of seeing the lunar eclipse in Alabama. Sorry….

RAW, WINDY, COLD TOMORROW: It sure won’t feel like April tomorrow. Strong north winds of 15-30 mph will usher in some very cold air; the high will be only in the low to mid 50s, and some communities over the northern third of the state might not get out of the 40s. We project gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon as subsidence takes over.

FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING: The new run of the NAM model is printing a low of 28 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Wednesday. We expect the range to be generally from 25 to 35 degrees, and growers will need to protect tender plants and vegetation. Some of the coldest valleys and protected areas (like Black Creek and Valley Head) could see low 20s. And, across higher terrain where temperatures stay above freezing, frost is likely.

A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with a high in the mid 60s. Thursday will be another sunny day with a high around 70 degrees.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A disturbance will bring the risk of showers late Friday afternoon, Friday night, and possibly into Saturday morning. Upper support is not impressive, and severe weather should not be an issue. And, rain not especially heavy.

The surface front will stall out over Central Alabama Saturday along with a moisture axis. Rain on Saturday should be light and spotty, and there is no risk of severe weather. The high will be in the mid 70s, and the sky will be generally cloudy.

All of a sudden the 12Z GFS brings in a wave of low pressure along the front, and more rain into Alabama. This solution seems plausible and is accepted for this forecast package, so we will amend the forecast to include the risk of rain Sunday. The weather stays mild with a high well into the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Drier air arrives Monday with a clearing sky, and mostly dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: A chance of showers and storms tonight, a few severe storms are possible from Gulf Shores over to Panama City. Then, clearing, windy, and cooler tomorrow with a high only in the low 60s. The weather will be dry through mid-week with sunny days and fair nights Wednesday and Thursday. Highs back in the 67 to 70 degree range on the immediate coast on these two days. Just a few scattered showers for Friday and Saturday; rain will be a little more likely Sunday.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa on Skyland Blvd. Wednesday from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you need your weather radio programmed, or have questions, come see us…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30 tonight; watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I enjoyed seeing the kids at Hokes Bluff and Chelsea Park Elementary Schools today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Flash Flood Watch Today

| 6:24 am April 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RAIN AND STORMS: Another wet Monday for Alabama. No, not as much rain as last Monday morning (thankfully), but average rain amounts of two inches are likely across North-Central Alabama, and the NWS has issued a flash flood watch for our part of the state. We do note the high resolution HRRR model, which performed very well during the last event, brings in some 4 inch rain totals near Tuscaloosa through this evening…

hrrr_rain

So, we expect the higher rain totals today west of I-65, and that is where we will find the greatest risk of flooding. Nothing like the flash flood emergency we dealt with last Monday morning in the Birmingham metro.

SEVERE WEATHER? The severe weather threat over the northern half of Alabama is marginal at best. The big rain mass this morning will make for a stable atmosphere, it remains to be seen if the air can recover for strong or severe storms this evening ahead of the surface boundary. Clearly the best chance of severe weather will come over the southern half of the state where parameters are better, but even there the low level jet looks pretty weak this evening.

Still, SPC has much of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather, so we will watch radar trends. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

Bad news for those hoping to see the lunar eclipse tonight; clouds are going nowhere, and they will cover Alabama through the night.

RAW, COLD DAY TOMORROW: Strong north winds of 15-30 mph will usher in much colder air into our state tomorrow. The high around here will be only in the low to mid 50s, and some North Alabama communities won’t make it out of the 40s. We will forecast gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon, but the day will be raw, windy, and cold.

WEDNESDAY MORNING FREEZE: Growers will need to protect plants and vegetation tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The GFS is printing a low of 32 for Birmingham, while the NAM is showing 28 degrees. We all know this is not a “one number” place when it comes to forecasting lows on a clear, calm morning. We figure the actual range will be from 24 to 34 degrees, with the colder readings in valleys and protected areas. Traditionally colder places like Valley Head and Black Creek could see low 20s. Most of the larger metropolitan areas like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will be clustered in the 28-33 degree range. Gadsden a bit colder.

A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 60s.

LATER THIS WEEK: Thursday will be sunny with a high close to 70, then clouds increase during the day Friday ahead of the next weather system.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks like we will have a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, Friday night into Saturday morning. With the main dynamic support so far north, we don’t expect severe weather, and rain amounts should not be too heavy (mostly under 1/2 inch). Sunday promises to be a beautiful day with lots of sun and a high in the mid 70s.

Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa on Skyland Blvd. Wednesday from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you need your weather radio programmed, or have questions, come see us…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Hokes Bluff Elementary School in Etowah County, and Chelsea Park Elementary School in Shelby County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Active Weather Tomorrow

| 6:50 am April 13, 2014

A few important notes concerning weather in the days ahead. Today will be warm and dry with a high in the low 80s, but some big changes are ahead.

RAIN/STORMS TOMORROW: SPC has most of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow, with an enhanced 30% chance over the central counties…

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Defining the severe weather threat tomorrow is somewhat complicated. A large mass of rain is expected to move across Alabama after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning, and this will limit the amount of instability available for the “second round” later in the day. If clouds hold in place through the day, the rain cooled air will greatly limit the severe weather potential over the northern half of Alabama. The wind fields will support some risk of severe weather; we will just have to watch developments closely during the day.

I would suggest the primary threats will come from strong straight line winds and hail, although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: The high resolution NAM model hints that over two inches of rain could fall south of Birmingham tomorrow and tomorrow night…

hires_t_precip_birmingham_20

The NWS might consider a flash flood watch this afternoon since the ground is still relatively saturated from the big rains this past Sunday night and Monday morning.

APRIL COLD SNAP: The other issue is the potential for frost/freeze Wednesday morning. Tuesday will be a raw, cold day with a chilly north wind…. sure looks like many places won’t get out of the 40s. Some possibility some communities north of Birmingham, near the Tennessee border, might even have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Models bring temperatures down into the 30 to 35 degree range around daybreak Wednesday…

Screen_Shot_2014-04-13_at_6_44_22_AM

Growers will need to plan accordingly. Colder pockets over North Alabama will most likely reach the 20s.

Stay tuned for updates through the day as new model data arrives…

Warm, Dry Weekend Ahead

| 2:28 pm April 11, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am at Regions Field for a special Weather Radio giveaway tonight at the Barons game**

WARM WEEKEND: A delightful weekend is ahead for Alabama; expect a partly to mostly sunny sky tomorrow and Sunday; highs will be near 80 degrees both days.

SPC maintains a standard “slight risk” of severe weather for areas west of Alabama Sunday; much of Arkansas, Louisiana, East Texas, and East Oklahoma is included in that outlook.

RAIN BY MONDAY: Showers and storms return to Alabama Monday and Monday night; severe weather parameters remain unimpressive, and severe weather (at least on an organized basis) is not expected for now. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, and the rain will end Tuesday as colder and drier air moves into the state. Parts of North Alabama won’t get out of the 50s Tuesday with a chilly north wind of 12-22 mph making it feel colder.

Wednesday morning will be cold, and the 12Z GFS suggests much of North and Central Alabama will drop into the 30s… seems like the potential of a late season frost or freeze is very real.

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Growers will need to monitor temperature forecasts closely in coming days. A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon, and for now Thursday and Friday look dry.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through Sunday. Rain and storms are likely Monday and Monday night; the rain ends Tuesday and the rest of next week will be dry. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 67-70 degree range because of the cooler ocean water (sea water temperatures are in the mid 60s), but inland some low 80s are likely over the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. Monday… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Delightful Weekend Ahead; Storms By Monday

| 6:02 am April 11, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: Weather like this sure makes our job easy; we expect mostly sunny mild days and fair nights through Sunday. Today’s high will be in the 75-78 degree range, then we top out close to 80 tomorrow, with low 80s possible Sunday.

To the west, a large “slight risk” severe weather risk is defined Sunday west of Alabama…

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EARLY NEXT WEEK: That storm system moves into Alabama with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms Monday, Monday night, and into at least a part of the day Tuesday. The good news is that severe weather parameters are very unimpressive, and at this point we just expect a good rain event with only a minimal severe weather threat. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, so major flooding is not expected, but the rain could be heavy at times.

The rain will end from west to east Tuesday, and noticeably cooler air blows into the state with brisk north winds. Some parts of the Tennessee Valley might have a hard time getting out of the 50s Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday morning will be cold; it is likely we will see 30s in many areas, and again there is potential for frost across the colder valleys. Growers once again will need to monitor temperature forecasts.

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Thursday and Friday of next week look dry with a warming trend. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Sunny Days Through Sunday

| 3:39 pm April 10, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

BIG WARM-UP: As expected, some of the traditionally colder spots across North Alabama saw some frost early this morning; Black Creek near Gadsden dropped to 33. But, we have warmed over 40 degrees in some places this afternoon as most communities are in the mid 70s. Hard to find a decent cloud in the sky.

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: Delightful weather continues. Mostly sunny warm days, fair cool nights. Upper 70s tomorrow; highs around 80 Saturday, with potential for low 80s Sunday.

To the west, SPC has a severe weather risk defined for areas west of Alabama Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

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EARLY NEXT WEEK: A dynamic weather system will bring rain and thunderstorms back to Alabama Monday into Tuesday. The GFS is a little faster, the ECMWF a little slower; for now we will project the primary window for rain from 12:00 noon Monday through 12:00 noon Tuesday, but understand that might need to be adjusted as we get closer to the event.

At this point there is no real focused surface low, and instability values are low, so the severe weather threat doesn’t look very high, but this is mid-April and that might change in coming days. No doubt it will bring a good soaking with rain amounts of one to two inches statewide. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

Colder air arrives Tuesday night, and we might have a situation where colder valleys and protected areas go into the low to mid 30s again either Wednesday or Thursday morning (much like what we experienced this morning).

VOODOO LAND: Another strong storm system will bring active weather to Alabama around April 19-20. See the video for more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight… we have moved the time to 9:30p CT to accommodate our crew at the National Tropical Tropical Weather Conference on the Texas coast. Watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the students at McElwain Christian Academy today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Big Warm-Up Today

| 5:52 am April 10, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD START: Many North/Central Alabama communities are in the 30s this morning. Some temperatures just before daybreak…

Black Creek 33
Fort Payne 34
Gadsden 36
Cottondale 36
Haleyville 36
Valley Head 37
Pleasant Grove 38
Cullman 39
Concord 39

Look for sunshine in full supply again today, and we warm into the mid 70s this afternoon.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: This fantastic spring weather will continue, with sunny days and fair nights. We reach the upper 70s tomorrow, and the high over the weekend will be around 80 degrees.

We note that SPC has introduced a severe weather risk for areas west of Alabama on day 4, which is Sunday…

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MONDAY/TUESDAY: A rather dynamic weather system will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama. The GFS hints the primary surface low will be well to the north of here, and at this point the severe weather risk doesn’t look overwhelming, but then again this is mid-April and you have to watch any storm system closely. Looks like rain amounts of around one inch, not enough for a big flooding issue.

The GFS moves the rain out quickly Monday night, but the ECMWF is slower, and keeps rain going through Tuesday morning. Drier and cooler air follows the rain for mid-week… Wednesday morning looks cold, and like this morning there could be 30s across colder pockets of North/Central Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights through Sunday. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper 60s, with 70s inland. Next chance of showers and storms will come Monday… sea water temperatures are in the mid 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
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I have a weather program today at McElwain Christian Academy in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!