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Colder With Rain By Friday

| 3:27 pm January 20, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE MID-WINTER DAY: We have sunshine today, filtered through mid level clouds, and temperatures up in the low to mid 60s across the great state of Alabama. Montgomery has managed to reach 70 degrees at mid-afternoon. Nothing on radar, no rain is expected over the next 48 hours.

A cold front will slip through here in dry fashion tonight, and will be only slightly cooler, with a high close to 60 with a mix of sun and clouds.

CHANGES AHEAD: A strong wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will being clouds into the state Thursday, and as a surface low forms in the northern Gulf of Mexico, rain will spread across the state after midnight Thursday night and during the day Friday. The heaviest rain will be close to the coast, where 2 inches or more are possible… up this way amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely. No thunder, no flooding threat, no snow, no ice… just a cool, rainy day Friday with temperatures holding in the 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS hints the rain will end across North/Central Alabama by 9 a.m. Saturday, with a clearing sky Saturday afternoon. If the sun breaks out, we will see low 50s. Sunday looks cool and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An “Alberta Clipper” will bring clouds back into Alabama Monday, along with some potential for a little light rain. Moisture will be very limited, so rain amounts will be very light, generally under 1/10 of an inch. Monday’s high will be in the 47-50 degree range. Then, Tuesday looks colder and dry with a morning low in the 20s, and a high in the mid to upper 40s.

Still no evidence of any bitterly cold air for Alabama through the end of January; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting the kindergarten classes at Weaver Elementary in Calhoun County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Wet and Colder Weather Returns Late This Week

| 6:18 am January 20, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL MILD TODAY: Looks like most North/Central Alabama communities will enjoy a high in the 62-65 degree range today, about ten degrees above average for January 20, but still well below the record high of 78 degrees set way back in 1928. We expect a good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds, much like yesterday.

Not much change tomorrow; the high will be close to 60 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

RAIN RETURNS: A strong wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will spin up a surface low in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week; clouds increase across Alabama Thursday, and rain will begin at some point Thursday night. Models have trended stronger, and further north with the precipitation shield in recent runs. Friday looks like a cool and wet day, with occasional rain along with temperatures in the 40s. The heaviest rain will be over the southern quarter of the state, where one inch is possible… amounts up this way (North/Central Alabama) will be in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will also have to adjust the forecast to keep some risk of light rain going through Friday night and Saturday morning as the surface low moves northeast… the latest GFS hints the rain will be over by 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon Saturday, and we might see some clearing late in the day. Saturday will remain cool with a high in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday for now looks cool and dry, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An Alberta Clipper will bring clouds and some risk of light rain to the state early next week on Monday. These features don’t have much moisture to work with, so precipitation amounts should be light. Might even be some risk of a snow flake or two around the Tennessee Valley Monday night, but it sure doesn’t look like a big deal. Then, cool and dry weather is the story for mid-week.

No sign of any seriously cold air for Alabama through the end of the month, with the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation remaining generally positive. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I have a weather program today at Weaver Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Spring-Like January Weather

| 3:24 pm January 19, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SPRING FEVER: Temperatures are well in the 60s across the great state of Alabama today… Birmingham has reached 67 degrees… 15 degrees above average, not not close to the record high of 76 for January 18, recorded in 1982.

Temperatures

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Not much change. We stay dry with a partly sunny sky both days; highs will be in the low 60s…. not quite as warm as today, but still very pleasant for mid-January.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Clouds increase Thursday ahead of a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream, and the day will be cooler with a high around 50 degrees. We will mention a chance of light rain late Thursday night and Friday; the heavier rain totals will be over the southern third of the state, especially close to the coast. Amounts up this way should be under 1/4 inch, and some places north of Birmingham won’t have enough rain to measure.

The atmosphere will be almost cold enough for a snow flake or two over the Tennessee Valley, but with very limited moisture and weak upper support, I don’t think we need to mention that possibility for now.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS run hints some rain could linger into early Saturday morning over East and South Alabama, but otherwise the day looks dry with potential for some afternoon sunshine. Sunday will feature a partly sunny sky; the high both days will be in the mid 50s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: An “Alberta Clipper” type system will bring clouds into the state Sunday night and Monday, with potential for a little light rain. Moisture levels will be low, and these features rarely produce big precipitation amounts. And again, the atmosphere will be almost cold enough for a snow flake or two over the Tennessee Valley Monday morning, but for now the chance looks so low it isn’t worth the mention in the forecast.

Next week looks colder, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s on most days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Very Nice Warm-Up Today

| 6:23 am January 19, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CHILLY START, MILD AFTERNOON: We begin the day with temperatures near the freezing mark, but look for a very nice warm-up today with most places enjoying a high in the mid 60s. It should be our warmest day since January 3 when Birmingham’s high was 66. The air is dry, and the sky will be mostly sunny.

Rain-free weather continues tomorrow and Wednesday with a partly sunny sky both days… temperatures trend downward slightly with a high in the low 60s tomorrow, and upper 50s Wednesday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Clouds will increase Thursday ahead of a wave in the southern branch of the jet stream, and this wave will bring rain to at least the southern half of the state Thursday night and Friday morning. Global models suggest the best chance of measurable rain with this feature will come along and south of I-20 (south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), with only a few sprinkles to the north.

Thickness values will almost be cold enough for some light snow over the northern third of the state Thursday night, but with the main dynamic forcing well to the south and hardly any moisture in the low levels, I don’t see any reason to mention that chance in the forecast for now.

Best chance of light rain over Central and South Alabama will come from about 10:00 p.m. Thursday through 10:00 a.m. Friday. And, we should note the weather will be colder Thursday and Friday with a high between 47 and 51 degrees for North/Central Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For now it looks cool and dry. A sunny sky Saturday with a high in the low to mid 50s. Clouds will slowly increase Sunday, and again the high will be in the 50-55 degree range.

An Alberta Clipper type feature will bring some risk of light rain to Alabama early next week on Monday, perhaps as early as Sunday night. These systems don’t bring much moisture to the party, and rarely produce big precipitation amounts. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and long range ideas.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Through Early Next Week

| 3:54 pm January 16, 2015

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**

BLUE SKY: I don’t think anyone is griping about the weather today. As expected, the sun is back in full force, and temperatures have reached the low 50s this afternoon.

The weather won’t change much over the weekend; lots of sunshine tomorrow with a high between 57 and 60, and a partly sunny sky Sunday with a high in the mid 50s.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry Monday through Wednesday with partly sunny days and fair nights; highs will be in the 55-60 degree range. The system due in here at the end of the week remains a mystery; in recent days we have seen model runs that show a significant snow threat for North/Central Alabama, nothing but some light rain for South Alabama, and nothing for the entire state. The 12Z GFS is pretty dry, suggesting no to mention any chance of rain.

I do believe a southern branch system will impact Alabama with at least a chance of rain for the southern half of the state Thursday night into Friday morning, but needless to say there is no way to provide clarity for now.

There is also little agreement in the weather toward the end of the month, for now the GEFS ensemble guidance still shows no extremely cold air for the state. But, of course, this could change.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Greystone Elementary in Hoover, and the 1st graders at Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Dry Days Ahead For Alabama

| 6:18 am January 16, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: It is a clear, cold morning across the great state of Alabama with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s across our part of the state. We do note there is some freezing fog (fog with temperatures below 32 degrees) in a few places, that should burn off soon.

With sunshine in full force, we expect a high today in the low 50s… right at seasonal averages (the average high for Birmingham on January 16 is 52).

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Some very nice weather is ahead. Tomorrow will be another sunny day, with a high between 57 and 60 degrees. An upper trough will move through tomorrow night and Sunday morning, but with little moisture the trough will just bring a few scattered clouds. The 00Z model set really shows temperatures not changing much Sunday, with a high in the mid to upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry Monday through Wednesday with afternoon highs between 58 and 62 degrees. A nice change of pace from the recent frigid weather. A low will spin up in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, and that will bring the next chance of rain to the state late Thursday, Thursday night, and possibly into Friday morning. Some runs of the GFS has given a “snow look” to North-Central Alabama with this feature, but the 00Z runs of the GFS and the ECMWF show just some light rain here, with the more significant rain over South Alabama.

It is simply too early to resolve details on a system seven days away, we will just keep an eye on trends and keep you posted.

LONG RANGE: Getting mixed signals on weather late this month; the AO/NAO is forecast to be positive by the GFS, but operational runs are showing potential for a long wave upper trough over the Central U.S. with a cross Polar flow potentially setting up. Makes for a low confidence solution; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Busy day ahead with weather programs at Greystone Elementary in Hoover, and Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Brighter/Warmer Days Ahead

| 3:40 pm January 15, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

IMPROVING WEATHER: Light rain, sleet, and snow is ending across Alabama this afternoon; as expected this was not a high impact event, there have been no travel issues across North/Central Alabama. The sky will clear tonight as drier air moves into the state.

The image below is from Hazel Green, north of Huntsville, where a few big snow flakes were coming down this afternoon. Photo from @shannong63…

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Tomorrow, the sun returns in full force. We start the day with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s, but rise into the low 50s by afternoon. Good luck finding your sunglasses.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday should be the most pleasant day so far in 2015, with ample sunshine and a high around 60 degrees. Then, on Sunday, a deep upper trough will bring just a few scattered clouds, and the high will drop back into the 50-55 degree range with a cool north breeze.

NEXT WEEK: For now the first half of the week looks dry; expect highs in the 50s and lows mostly in the 30s Monday through Wednesday, right at seasonal averages. A disturbance will bring a chance of rain toward the end of the week; the 12Z GFS shows a quick hitting shot of rain for the southern half of the state Thursday night, with some outside risk of a little snow on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield. Just too early to be specific for now; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Messy Winter Day

| 11:03 am January 15, 2015

Not much change in our overall thinking this morning. Most of Central Alabama will have a cold rain today with some sleet in the mix, but to the north a wintry mix of light snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue this afternoon.

The NWS in Huntsville has issued a winter weather advisory for Colbert, Cullman, De Kalb, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marshall, and Morgan Counties; there are no advisories for the Birmingham NWS County Warning area.

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Temperatures are above freezing at Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, and Jasper, and roads will simply be wet this afternoon with no ice issues. To the north, patchy bridge icing is possible north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), but temperatures will ease above freezing this afternoon in that part of the state.

Just watch for patches of ice on bridges across the Tennessee Valley during the next hour or so; this is not a widespread, high impact event.

Temperatures

We do note the HRRR model (high resolution) does show a patch of heavier snow over the northwest corner of the state this afternoon; that might put down 1/4 to 1/2 inch on grassy areas, but roads will be just wet.

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The precipitation will end this evening, and the sun will be back in full force tomorrow for a change.