James Spann
A Few Strong Storms Later Today
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RADAR CHECK: At daybreak we have a scattered showers over the northern half of Alabama; some heavier rain was falling over Lamar and Marion Counties. Temperatures are generally in the 60s, and the sky is mostly cloudy.
THE DAY AHEAD: Our friends at SPC (the Storm Prediction Center) have a small part of Northwest Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather later today and tonight… the risk extends westward into Mississippi.
No doubt we will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms later today and tonight thanks to an upper short wave just north and west of the state; this is what is left of the upper low that brought the tornado outbreak to Texas Wednesday night. It will weaken with time, but the upper support clearly means a decent chance of getting wet at times.
In terms of the severe weather potential, the air over Alabama will be moderately unstable later today, with surface based CAPE values in the 1500-2500 j/kg range, with the higher values over West Alabama this afternoon. Bulk shear values are not overly impressive, so I really don’t think we have much of a tornado threat, but it is certainly not zero. The primary threat will come from hail and strong gusty winds, and the main severe weather window will come from about 2:00 until 9:00 p.m. The greatest chance of seeing a severe storm in Alabama will be north of I-20, and west of I-65. We will watch radar trends closely.
The rain will end from northwest to southeast tonight as the short wave moves northeast and continues to weaken. Today’s high should be in the low 80s.
WEEKEND WEATHER: A moist and somewhat unstable airmass will remain over Alabama this weekend, meaning the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue. There are many, many outdoor events planned across our state, and unfortunately the state of the science doesn’t allow us to give you a specific start/stop time of the rain for any specific point due to the random nature of the showers and storms.
The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is about one in three, with the odds lowering to about one in four Sunday. While the best chance of showers and storms this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning storm. In fact, the high resolution 4km NAM shows a few strong storms forming around here during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
The sun will be out at times tomorrow and Sunday, and highs will be generally in the mid 80s. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see the maps, graphics, and get more details about weekend weather.
NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should be very warm and dry thanks to an upper ridge building across the Deep South; highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range making it the warmest weather so far this year. A few showers are possible late Wednesday into Thursday, and the 00Z GFS brings in drier air into North Alabama Friday.
LET’S GO TO THE BEACH: Fantastic weather for those of you headed to the Hangout Music Festival at Gulf Shores, or any other place east to Panama City. Sunny days, fair nights through early next week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, with 80s just a mile or two inland. Sea water temperatures are running mostly in the low to mid 70s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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My last school weather program of the 2012-13 school year is this morning… I will be at Saks Elementary School in Calhoun County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Showers Return To Alabama
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel… I will be live in Gadsden on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00**
RADAR CHECK: We note a few showers over far West Alabama at mid-afternoon… but a large percentage of the state is rain-free with temperatures generally in the low 80s. Clouds have increased over West Alabama ahead of an upper low near Tulsa…
TOMORROW: Looks like the day will be mostly cloudy, with a pretty decent chance of a few passing showers or thunderstorms. Below is the output of the high resolution (4km) NAM valid at 1pm tomorrow…
We note SPC maintains a “slight risk”, or the standard risk, of severe weather for parts of Mississippi tomorrow, but shear and instability profiles don’t suggest a major threat here in Alabama, although a strong storm is possible in spots. The high tomorrow will be near, or just above 80 degrees.
OUR WEEKEND: Looks like a typical late May weekend in Alabama. Warm, humid, a mix of sun and clouds, and the risk of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Below is the 4km NAM output valid Saturday at 1p CT… suggesting showers will be pretty widely spaced…
Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 80s, and the sun should out at times between the passing showers or storms.
NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge should mean mostly dry and very warm weather Monday and Tuesday; lots of sun with highs in the 87-90 degree range; our warmest weather so far this year. Then, a few showers could show up Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing especially widespread. And, the good news is that we still don’t see any risk of organized severe weather for the next 10-15 days.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks great… mostly sunny days and fair nights through Sunday. Perfect for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores… highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, with 80s just a mile or two inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 72 degrees.
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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
I had a great time today seeing all the people at the Pell City Civic Center… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Moisture Levels Slowly Rising
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
TEXAS TORNADOES: The death toll is up to six in the North Texas tornadoes last night; the most serious damage is in Granbury, in Hood County about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth. Dozens more were injured. Thankfully we do not expect any organized severe weather in Alabama over the next 10-15 days.
WARM DAYS: We expect a high back in the mid 80s today, and we stay warm through next week. A decent chance we flirt with 90 degrees for the first time this year early next week as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast U.S.
An few isolated showers are possible today, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only in the 10-15 percent range.
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: The overall pattern won’t change much, but there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms late tomorrow and tomorrow night as short wave energy gets closer. Guidance looks relatively wet from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Friday; we note SPC has placed parts of North Mississippi under the standard “slight risk” of severe weather, but the shear/instability combination just doesn’t look too impressive over our state, and there is no formal severe weather risk here.
For the weekend, highs will remain mostly in the mid 80s around 85 degrees, and we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, generally during the afternoon and evening hours (although we can’t totally rule out a morning shower). There should be some decent intervals of sunshine both days.
NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge gets stronger, so scattered showers will greatly thin out Monday and Tuesday, and afternoons get warmer. The GFS is printing a high of 89 for Birmingham Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. There might be a slight increase in the number of showers around Wednesday and Thursday with a weak front to the north, but the upper ridge will stay strong and widespread rain just doesn’t look very likely. It will feel like summer.
WEEKEND AT THE BEACH: Fine weather for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores, and just about anywhere from Panama City over to the Alabama coast with sunny days and fair nights through Sunday. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, but expect 80s just a mile or two inland. Sea water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 70s this morning.
ALVIN: Tropical Storm Alvin in the East Pacific is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, but it is no threat to land, and will begin to dissipate over the weekend as it moves higher in latitude and encounters colder ocean water.
See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.
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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
I will be speaking to a senior adult group this morning in Pell City, and then I am live in Gadsden this evening at 4, 5, and 6:00 on ABC 33/40. Probably won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but I will post more forecast notes here this afternoon. Enjoy the day…
A Few Scattered Showers In The Days Ahead
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
MARVELOUS MAY AFTERNOON: The sky is mostly sunny across the great state of Alabama this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 83-86 degree range. Nothing on the radar.
Look for low clouds to form over Alabama late tonight, and we might even see a sprinkle or two after midnight in spots.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: A summer-like pattern sets up. Low clouds will likely form after midnight tonight… there might even be a few spots of drizzle early tomorrow morning. Then, the sky becomes partly sunny tomorrow, and during the afternoon and evening hours we have the risk of a few scattered showers or storms with a high in the mid 80s. High resolution model data shows the best chance of a shower tomorrow afternoon will be north of I-20, and west of I-65. Chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow afternoon is about one in four.
The weather will be very similar Friday afternoon, although showers could be a little more numerous thanks to a weak upper wave. The chance of any one spot seeing a shower Friday is about one in three, and mainly from 2 p.m. until 8 p.m. The weather stays warm with a high in the mid 80s.
OUR WEEKEND: No real change for Saturday and Sunday. Warm with a mix of sun and clouds each day, and we will maintain the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. Highs will remain generally in the mid 80s, although upper 80s are possible in a few spots. The rain won’t be really widespread, and we don’t expect any severe weather. A very typical late May setup.
NEXT WEEK: The Great Plains could see severe thunderstorms Saturday through Monday, but the main dynamics will remain far north of Alabama, and Monday and Tuesday here look generally dry and warm with only isolated showers; highs on these two days will be in the 85-88 degree range. A few showers or storms are possible at mid-week on Wednesday with the approach of a weakening cold front, but nothing really organized, and severe weather is not expected.
TROPICAL UPDATE: Today is the first day of the East Pacific hurricane season, and right on cue we have a new tropical depression that has formed off the coast of Mexico. It should strengthen in a hurricane in coming days, but then it moves higher in latitude over colder water and will fizzle out; no threat to land. The Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricane season begins June 1.
AT THE BEACH: The weather looks fantastic on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with sunny days and clear nights through the weekend. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, with 80s just a mile or two inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 74 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
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I really enjoyed being in Greenville today; thanks to Mayor Dexter McLendon and Police Chief Lonzo Ingram for the invitation. I saw many old friends. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
A Few Showers Before The Week Is Over
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
WARM DAYS: Looks like we will see highs in the 80s for the foreseeable future as the warmth we expect in May finally settles in. Today our weather stays dry with ample sunshine and a high around 85 this afternoon. We will introduce a slight risk of a shower tomorrow afternoon, but most communities will remain dry.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The disturbance that has been over Mexico has moved up into Texas, and it will continue to drift eastward. We will mention a chance of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Friday; the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and the best chance of showers will come over the northern half of the state. South Alabama looked dry with a capping inversion.
All of the new guidance is now suggesting the risk of scattered showers and storms will continue into the weekend over the northern half of our state, and we will make adjustments in the forecast to include this. Like Friday, the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the peak of the daytime heating process, and not everyone will see rain. A very typical summer-like setup, and highs will remain mostly in the mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds both days.
NEXT WEEK: A major storm system well to the north could bring severe weather from near Tulsa to Chicago Monday, but upper ridging should keep Alabama generally rain-free with a high in the mid to upper 80s. Similar weather Tuesday, but the cold front creeps into far North Alabama Wednesday along with a chance of showers and storms. Severe weather potential Wednesday for now looks rather low with the main support well to the north.
LET’S HEAD TO THE BEACH: Weather along the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores can’t get much better… expect sunny days and fair nights through the weekend; highs along the immediate coast will be in the 70s, with 80s just a mile or two inland. Sea water temperatures are near 70 degrees. Perfect weather for the annual Hangout Music Festival, which kicks off Friday in Gulf Shores.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Facebook
Twitter
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I will be in Greenville today speaking at a memorial service to honor fallen police officers; many of you know I lived in Greenville as a young child through fourth grade… I have so many fond memories of my days in Butler County. Always good coming home to see so many old friends.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
