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Delightful Fall Weather Ahead

| 3:51 pm October 15, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: A deck of stratocumulus clouds is over the northern third of Alabama this afternoon, where temperatures are barely out of the 50s in spots along with a cool west breeze. But, South Alabama is in full sunshine with temperatures in the 70s. We will maintain the risk of a few showers over Northeast Alabama this evening as the upper trough axis rotates overhead, but rain amounts there will be light and spotty.

FINE FALL WEATHER: A dry, stable, continental airmass will cover Alabama and the Deep South tomorrow through the weekend, setting the stage for sunny days and fair nights. The high tomorrow will be close to 70 degrees, but on Friday we warm into the upper 70s. Some spots could see 80 degrees Friday afternoon, but a new surge of cooler air blows in here over the weekend. We project highs in the 70s Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The dry, pleasant weather will likely continue into early next week.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Doesn’t get any better for the high school games this week; no lightning worries with a clear sky Thursday and Friday night. Temperatures will fall through the 60s, reaching the 50s in some stadiums by the fourth quarter.

Saturday, Alabama hosts Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny; 75 degrees at kickoff, upper 60s by the fourth quarter. No risk of rain.

The UAB Blazers are on the road; they play at Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff). Again, a perfect day for football with a sunny sky. Temperatures will fall from near 70 at kickoff, to near 62 by the final whistle.

TROPICS: Hurricane Gonalzo is a major hurricane (category four) in the Atlantic, with sustained winds of 130 mph, and the eye is expected to pass just west of Bermuda Friday. Then it recurves out to sea; no threat to the U.S. mainland. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through the weekend from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs mostly in the 70s (although the high Friday will be in the low 80s), with lows in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Some Scattered Light Rain Possible

| 6:17 am October 15, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ON THE MAPS: A deep, cold core upper trough axis will rotate over Alabama today, bringing breezy and cool weather to the state with cloudy periods over the northern counties.

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We will continue to mention the chance of scattered light rain this afternoon and early tonight, mainly north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). Rain amounts will be light and spotty, and the showers will be out of here by midnight. Highs today will be in the 60s; some communities near the Tennessee border might hold in the cool 50s all day.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Fine fall weather, with sunny days and clear nights. The high tomorrow will be in the 67-70 degree range, but we then warm into the upper 70s Friday. Then, a fresh supply of cooler air arrives for the weekend. For Saturday and Sunday, we project highs in the 70s, and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Delightful.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Doesn’t get any better for the high school games this week; no lightning worries with a clear sky Thursday and Friday night. Temperatures will fall through the 60s, reaching the 50s in some stadiums by the fourth quarter.

Saturday, Alabama hosts Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny; 76 degrees at kickoff, upper 60s by the fourth quarter. No risk of rain.

The UAB Blazers are on the road; they play at Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff). Again, a perfect day for football with a sunny sky. Temperatures will fall from near 72 at kickoff, to near 62 by the final whistle.

TROPICS: Hurricane Gonalzo has become a major hurricane in the Atlantic, with sustained winds of 125 mph, and is expected to pass very close to the island of Bermuda Friday. Then it recurves out to sea; no threat to the U.S. mainland.

LONG RANGE: The GFS, famous for developing bogus tropical systems in the medium range (days 7-15) that never happen, is again latching on to the idea of a tropical storm in the Gulf October 26-26, but we remain skeptical. But, do keep in mind the Gulf has not been touched by a tropical system this season and there is lots of latent heat energy available. See the video for the maps.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a program this morning for the patients at Children’s of Alabama in downtown Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Breezy and Cool October Weather

| 3:32 pm October 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: The rain is now east of Alabama, but a deep, cold upper trough is still west of the state, and that is allowing only limited intervals of sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures are in the 60s with a gusty west wind.

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A deep, cold upper trough will rotate through our state tonight and tomorrow, keeping the sky cloudy at times over the northern counties of the state. We will mention the risk of showers tomorrow primarily along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). Rain amounts there should be fairly light, and the weather from I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston) south should be dry. The day tomorrow will be breezy and cool with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will feature delightful fall weather conditions. Sunshine in full supply, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. Highs will be in the 70s, and lows will be in the mid to upper 40s for most locations.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dry, stable air stays in place, and the weather won’t change much. Sunny days, fair nights, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. Perfect weather for race weekend at Talladega, or anything else you want to do outside. The kind of weather you expect in October.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Doesn’t get any better for the high school games this week; no lightning worries with a clear sky Thursday and Friday night. Temperatures will fall through the 60s, reaching the 50s in some stadiums by the fourth quarter.

Saturday, Alabama hosts Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny; 76 degrees at kickoff, upper 60s by the fourth quarter. No risk of rain.

The UAB Blazers are on the road; they play at Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff). Again, a perfect day for football with a sunny sky. Temperatures will fall from near 72 at kickoff, to near 62 by the final whistle.

TROPICS: Hurricane Gonalzo is packing sustained winds of 110 mph north of Puerto Rico this afternoon; it is expected to strengthen into a category three storm tonight or tomorrow, and pass very close to the island of Bermuda Friday. Then it recurves out to sea; no threat to the U.S. mainland.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights through the weekend from Panama City to Gulf Shores. Highs in the 75-80 degree range, lows in the 60s. Perfect fall weather.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I enjoyed seeing a big group today at Englewood Elementary School in Tuscaloosa…. be looking for them o the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the first graders from Oliver Elementary in Birmingham will be on at 5:00. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Cooler Days Ahead For Alabama

| 6:16 am October 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: At daybreak a narrow line of heavier showers was pushing into East Alabama; the big rain/storm mass we saw last night is over the eastern half of Georgia.

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Showers will end across Alabama later this morning, and the day will be breezy and much cooler with temperatures hovering in the upper 60s and low 70s. West winds will average 10-20 mph; the sun might break through the afternoon in a few spots.

TOMORROW: A deep upper low will be north of Alabama, and this feature will keep clouds in place over the Tennessee Valley much of the day; for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, we project a mix of sun and clouds. The day will be breezy and cool with a high between 66 and 69 degrees for most places; low 70s are possible to the south.

A lobe of energy rotating around the upper low could bring a touch of light rain or drizzle to the northern quarter of the late tomorrow or tomorrow night; best chance of a few raindrops will be north of a line from Muscle Shoals to Gadsden to Spring Garden.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Picture perfect fall weather for the great state of Alabama, with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. Highs mostly in the 70s, lows down in the upper 40s and low 50s. The weather could not be better for the races at Talladega this weekend, and this week no rain issues for high school or college football games around here. The dry weather will continue into early next week.

TROPICS: Gonzalo is now a hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph, just northeast of Puerto Rico. This is expected to pass very close to Bermuda Friday, then moving out to sea. It is no threat to the U.S., but interests in Bermuda will need to pay very close attention to forecasts.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The sky becomes partly sunny on the coast today, with storms ending over the Florida Panhandle this morning. Then, sunny days, fair nights tomorrow through the weekend. Highs around 80, lows in the 50s and 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program today at Englewood Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Late Morning Update

| 11:29 am October 13, 2014

We are still looking at a signifiant severe weather threat for Alabama this afternoon, tonight, into tomorrow morning. Scroll down for the full meteorological discussion.

Scattered storms, some severe, will begin to form over the western half of Alabama after 3:00 p.m. Then, an organized line of severe storms will move through after midnight. It will take a long time for the line of storms to move through; it could be mid-morning tomorrow before they clear the Georgia border.

The highest risk of tornadoes will come this afternoon and early tonight over West Alabama; the main threat with the line of storms after midnight will come from damaging straight line winds.

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There are multiple tornado warning polygons up late this morning near the Mississippi River…

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We will have frequent updates on the situation as storms begin to form across West Alabama this afternoon… stay tuned…

Severe Weather Threat Ahead For Alabama

| 6:38 am October 13, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

As always before any severe weather threat, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and detailed information on what is ahead.

AT DAYBREAK: Things are pretty quiet early this morning; just a few sprinkles on the radar near the Tennessee border… most of the state is rain-free with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s around here. We don’t expect any weather problems through the morning hours.

SEVERE STORMS AHEAD: A vigorous upper trough west of Alabama, with an attendant surface low and cold front, will bring the threat of severe weather to our state late today and tonight. Here is a look at what we expect across Alabama…

TIMING: Severe storms could develop over the western half of Alabama as early as 4:00-5:00 this afternoon. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, and maybe even a tornado or two. The primary squall line will enter West Alabama late tonight, around midnight, and will move slowly through the state during the pre-dawn hours. After midnight, the core threat shifts to damaging straight line wind along the squall line. It could very well be after daybreak tomorrow before the storms impact places like Anniston and Gadsden in East Alabama.

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THREATS: The highest tornado probabilities are west of Alabama, around Memphis and the Mississippi Delta this afternoon and early tonight, but clearly there will be a risk of a few tornadoes over West Alabama between 5:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. All of Alabama will have a risk of damaging straight line winds, with individual thunderstorms, and with the organized line that will move through after midnight. And, some hail is also possible in stronger storms.

FLASH FLOODING: A flash flood watch is in effect for that part of Alabama north of a line from Millport to Jasper to Oneonta to Fort Payne. Keep in mind this part of the state, received significant rain over the weekend; we have reports of almost five inches of rain around Cullman. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches will create the risk of flooding tonight.

GET THE WARNINGS! Remember, if you think you will hear an outdoor warning siren late tonight while you family is sleeping, you pretty much have no hope of getting a warning. Every home needs a properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio, and a good “second layer” is a smart phone app like MyWarn, or WeatherRadio. Be sure you and your family can hear severe weather warnings late this afternoon and tonight.

ABC 33/40 COVERAGE: If any part of our TV market is under a tornado warning, you know the deal… we go on the air, and stay on the air. When we have no active tornado warnings, tonight we will be on our live stream, and our digital weather channel “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state. You can access the live stream through any ABC 33/40 app, including the James Spann 24/7 app, or on the ABC 33/40 web site.

REST OF THE WEEK: Rain moves out of the state tomorrow, and the weather turns much cooler with a gusty north breeze. A cut-off upper low will persist north of the state Wednesday, and could keep clouds over the northern third of the state, and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle around the Tennessee Valley. A good chance we won’t get out of the 60s Wednesday.

Then, the weather will be delightful Thursday and Friday with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights; highs in the 70s and lows down around 50 degrees. Colder pockets will visit the 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Could not be better. Clear weather continues; highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. Perfect for race weekend at Talladega, football, or anything else you want to do outdoors.

TROPICS: We have a pair of tropical storms in the Atlantic; Fay is east of Bermuda, and is moving east over the open Atlantic. And, Gonzalo is near the Leeward Islands; it will be near the eastern tip of Puerto Rico after midnight tonight as a strong tropical storm, and should become a hurricane tomorrow as moves over the open Atlantic. These will not impact the U.S. mainland.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have moved this week’s show to tomorrow night at 8:30p CT due to the severe weather threat tonight.

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I will be doing a weather program today at Oliver Elementary School in Birmingham… we will have frequent updates on the severe weather threat here on the blog through the day, and of course as the event unfolds tonight and tomorrow morning. I will post another detailed discussion by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Night

| 6:34 am October 12, 2014

Here is a look at the Alabama severe weather situation Monday night. A strong upper trough will approach from the west, providing very good dynamic support for the attendant cold front.

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The Storm Prediction Center has almost all of Alabama in the standard severe weather “slight risk” for tomorrow night, with higher probabilities over the far western part of the state.

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Forecast surface based instabilities are not especially impressive, with CAPE (convective available potential energy) values generally under 1,000 j/kg. The one parameter that does stand out is the low level jet (the winds near 5,000 feet off the ground), which will exceed 50 knots over the northern half of the state.

TIMING: While scattered storms could break out tomorrow afternoon, the core severe weather threat will come from roughly 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Tuesday. Approximate timing for the main line of storms…

West Alabama: 8pm to 11pm
I-65 Corridor/Central Alabama: 11pm to 3am
East Alabama: 3am to 6am (storms should be slowly weakening at this time)

THREATS: The primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds within the QLCS, or squall line. However, there will be sufficient bulk shear for a few small, short lived embedded tornadoes within the line. Thunderstorm winds could be sufficient to knock down trees and power lines during the night. Rain amounts should average 1/2 to 1 inch, but that won’t be enough to create signifiant flooding issues, most likely.

CALL TO ACTION: Since this will be a late night/pre-dawn event, everyone will need to have a properly programmed weather radio, with good batteries installed in case of a power outage, available in your home so you won’t miss any warning that is issued. And, of course, good smart phone apps are another great way of receiving warnings. Apps like WeatherRadio, and MyWarn work very well.

AFTER THE STORMS: Much cooler air invades Alabama; highs drop into the 60s Wednesday, and lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s…

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Brian Peters will have a full weather discussion, and a new Weather Xtreme video shortly. Stay tuned…

Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms

| 3:46 pm October 10, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: A classic case of “scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms” across the great state of Alabama this afternoon…

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Showers are moving northeast, and should settle down later tonight.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change in the overall weather tomorrow and Sunday. Mixed sun and clouds, highs in the low to mid 80s, and the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the moist airmass over the state. While the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a nighttime or morning shower as well. Some of the afternoon storms that form will be strong.

SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT? A vigorous weather system will bring the risk of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama early next week. A deep upper trough will support a surface low that will run from northern Arkansas to near Chicago. We expect a line of severe storms in here Monday night with potential for damaging winds, and maybe even an isolated small tornado or two. The low level jet (winds around 5,000 feet off the ground) will feature a core of 60-70 knots over North Alabama, and it won’t take too much to get some of that down to the surface.

The latest (12Z) GFS is a tad faster, suggest the main window for the line of storms to be from about 7:00 p.m. Monday through 4:00 a.m. Tuesday. Ahead of the storms, Monday will be warm and windy with a high in the 80s.

Much cooler and drier air will follow the storms Tuesday, and the rest of the week looks great with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. We should drop into the 40s by early Wednesday and Thursday morning.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; scattered showers and storms are possible during the games, especially during the first half. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Tomorrow, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 84 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming tomorrow; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 84 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm, but rain will not be widespread.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the my Weather Xtreme video here by Monday morning at 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!