Tropical Depression About to Form

Air Force reconnaissance is enroute to investigate the low pressure system in the northeastern Caribbean. The plane is now approaching the Bahamas. I think they will find that a tropical depression has formed. It might not be long until it is a tropical storm. We could be seeing Kyle soon.

Heavy rain is falling over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands where flash flood warnings are in effect.

WONT41 KNHC 211432
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

The consensus in the models is to move it north northwestward, with a possible northwest turn by day five. There is some hint that it could curve toward the Northeast U.S., possible the New York area or New England. The GFDL makes it a hurricane by Tuesday morning. The HWRF is a little slower, but does bring it to hurricane intensity as it passes west of Bermuda. Here is the model output…

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