Forecast Thoughts At 8:30

Interesting note from reader David Reimer out in Texas:

“Good Evening once again,

If what is going on here in TX happens in AL it is going to be very
interesting. We just had surprise snow pop up here just east of N. TX near
Tyler. Completely not forecasted at all. WWA’s out for all of LA and South
AR. What appeared to have been a winter storm for MS and W. AL has
transformed into what may go down in the Weather Books as a major winter
storm (For southern standards) for TX east. You warned us that these systems
are unpredictable and now I see what you mean. Have a good evening and I
will be eagerly awaiting your evening snow forecast.”

David is confirming what we know… models do a horrible job with events like this. Sometimes you throw out the models and just look out the window.

Speaking of models, here is the 00Z NAM (just in house) valid at 6:00 p.m. tomorrow:

This shows 1000-850 mb thickness values (low level cold)… and note the critical 1300 meter line is far enough south to support the idea of significant snow over Northwest Alabama… therefore supporting our ongoing forecast.

Much more, of course, on the early morning discussion and Weather Xtreme video which I will have posted by 6:30 a.m. tomorrow. I would not be shocked if Dr. Tim Coleman chimes in here sometime late tonight, or in the wee hours of tomorrow morning…

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