Monday Midday Notes On Irma

Midday notes on Hurricane Irma. Sustained winds are 120 mph.

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for theislands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

*Concerning the official forecast from NHC, don’t focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

*Irma is expected to take a hard right turn over Cuba late this week, or early in the weekend. It is simply too early to know when that right turn happens; the timing of the turn will determine the impact over Florida.

*There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle) and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions will begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.

*As a course of least regret, people in South Florida should begin preparations now for a potentially major hurricane. Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as Friday; the main impact will be over the weekend.

*There is a good chance Irma does not enter the Gulf of Mexico; for now no direct impact is expected in Gulf Shores, Destin, or Panama City Beach. But, no total guarantee.

More on the afternoon discussion later today.

Tags: Irma

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical