Nate To Bring Wind/Rain To Alabama This Weekend

| October 6, 2017 @ 3:27 pm

CALM BEFORE THE STORM: Temperatures are in the 80s across Alabama this afternoon under a sunny sky, but tropical trouble is lurking to the south for the weekend.

Tropical Storm Nate will clip the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and enter the Gulf of Mexico early tomorrow morning. It moves near the mouth of the Mississippi River (extreme Southeast Louisiana) tomorrow night, and then into the Mississippi coast during the pre-dawn hours Sunday as a category one hurricane, based on the latest NHC outlook.

We note a hurricane warning is now in effect for all of the Alabama Gulf Coast. Here are the important points concerning Nate this afternoon…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton CountyLine
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

And, a tropical storm watch has been issued for much of Central Alabama for Sunday.

*The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida…4 to 6 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

*For North/Central Alabama, most of the rain will come late Saturday night into Sunday. Rain amounts should average 2-5 inches, with isolated totals to 6 inches. Some flooding is possible.

*Gradient winds over North Alabama (including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden) will be in the 20-40 mph range Sunday. Higher winds of 40-55 mph are now expected across parts of Central Alabama, generally south of a line from Demopolis to Clanton to Wedowee. Some tree and power line damage is possible in this zone Sunday.

*Highest risk of tornadoes with Nate will come over the southern half of Alabama over the weekend. The tornado threat for northern half of the state is low.

*Wind and rain will diminish across North/Central Alabama late Sunday night. Showers remain possible Monday, however.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky should be clear with temperatures falling from around 80 degrees at kickoff, through the 70s during the game.

Auburn hosts Ole Miss tomorrow at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures rising from near 78 degrees at kickoff into the low 80s by the final whistle. A few scattered showers are possible, but the most widespread rain comes well after the end of the game.

Alabama is on the road; they will take on the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday in College Station, Texas tomorrow evening (6:15p CT kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 88 degrees at kickoff, to near 80 by the end of the game.

UAB’s homecoming is tomorrow; the Blazers take on Louisiana Tech at Legion Field (3:00p CT kickoff)… for now we are forecasting a partly sunny sky with 83 degrees at kickoff, falling to near 80 by the fourth quarter. A passing shower is possible, but not likely.

NEXT WEEK: Showers remain possible Monday and Tuesday as Nate will leave behind a humid, tropical airmass. The weather slowly trends cooler and drier over the latter half of the week.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Hot Deals now!

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We will have updates on Nate here on the blog frequently through the weekend… stay tuned…


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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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