9 a.m. Update on the Alabama Weather Situation

A rainy morning is in progress across Central Alabama ahead of a very strong shortwave trough and small upper-level low that is centered near Memphis.   A surface low is over northern Mississippi north of Tupelo. A cold front is along the Alabama-Mississippi border.

The rain covers much of Central Alabama south of US-278 and is heaviest in the I-20 Corridor.

The back edge of the rain now extends from Jasper to Vance to Linden.   The rain should end in the Birmingham Area between 930 and 1030 a.m.

Only one or two lightning strikes so far.  The air is just too stable for now.

This stable air could protect us from a few severe storms this afternoon over far eastern Alabama.  The surface low will try to pull higher dewpoint air along the Gulf Coast into southeastern parts of Central Alabama, which could allow for a few strong storms ahead of the cold front this afternoon for places like Auburn, Phenix City, Eufaula, and Clayton.

The risk is much like Sunday, with a low to moderate amount of instability, but certainly enough for decent thunderstorm updrafts and a strong mid-level jet working around the base of the compact upper low. So, if the dewpoints do get in the lower and middle 60s, we could see a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds gusts and even the posisbility of an isolated tornado in the areas mentioned above.

In addition, further north, a few showers will form behind the main rain area by noon into early afternoon in areas over the northeastern quarter of the state, from Birmingham north, northeast, and east. Watch for a few of these storms to be strong with the possibility of strong gusty winds and some hail. We can’t rule out a brief tornado over places like Cherokee, Cleburne, Clay, and Randolph Counties in the 2-5 p.m. time frame.

We will be watching throughout the day and will keep you posted here on the AlabamaWX blog.

Tags: exp03

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS