Stormy Today

Once again this morning out satellite view showed numerous areas of cloudiness across Alabama due to convection overnight. Much of the convection formed along and south of storms in the Tennessee River Valley and moved generally southward, but radar showed these storms to be weakening just before sunrise. Temperatures were just slightly cooler this morning thanks to the rain with readings in the upper 60s.

The closed low at 500 millibars has moved closed and was situated just northwest of St. Louis early this morning. As small perturbations move around this low, we should see a couple of different rounds of thunderstorms. In fact, SPC has included much of the northern half of Alabama in the standard slight risk for severe storms with damaging wind expected to be the primary threat. An isolated tornado will be possible today due to the presence of fairly strong shear. Strong flow aloft will contribute to robust updraft strength. Todays highs should climb into the upper 80s.

The tropical Atlantic was quiet this morning while the Eastern Pacific showed two areas of concern, neither of which was likely to form a storm or depression over the next couple of days.

The upper low will continue to weaken and move into the eastern Great Lakes area on Saturday, however, a weak short wave will be moving by on Saturday which could contribute to fairly numerous showers and storms once again. The highs Saturday should be near 90.

The upper flow goes pretty zonal on Sunday, so shower and thunderstorm activity should diminish considerably. While most of us will remain dry, an isolated storm or two still may occur as highs climb into the lower 90s. A trough over Nebraska on Monday will pump up a ridge over the Southeast US on Monday, so a more summer-like pattern returns with isolated to scattered storms once again with highs in the lower 90s.

The ridge stays with us Tuesday but is dampen down by a strong trough moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, so showers remain in the forecast. We never completely lose the humid air mass. Highs at mid-week will be in the lower 90s. For the later half of the week we see a weak ridge in place, so highs are likely to remain in the lower 90s.

But as we get into voodoo country, the GFS remains bullish on developing a ridge over the eastern half of the country as we enter July. That ridge migrates west on July 2nd and takes up residence over Kansas by July 5th. That certainly spells more heat for the Central US, but it keeps us out of the extreme heat. Not much change to the pattern by the 7th of July.

BEACH FORECAST: No affects from the Gulf system or Bud on the beautfiul beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I had a wonderful visit with the Alabaster-Pelham Rotary Club yesterday for lunch. Great group of folks and it was fun recalling my experiences in Hurricane Ivan in 2004. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 7 am or so on Saturday. Enjoy the day, but remember to stay weather aware due to the threat for severe weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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