SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely At This Time
SUMMARY…A cluster of storms will continue east across northern Mississippi this morning, with some threat of damaging winds. Although a watch is not anticipated within the next hour or two, storm trends will be monitored for an increase in organization by late morning/early afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Distinct from cells over southeastern Arkansas, a separate cluster of strong to severe cells has organized over northern Mississippi. This downshear development will likely push eastward through the morning, as the downstream environment destabilizes with ongoing heating amidst rich boundary layer moisture. Enhanced 700-500mb flow and primarily unidirectional profiles noted in 12Z JAN/BMX soundings will occasionally support localized bowing with this cluster this morning, promoting some damaging wind threat. Although the current thermodynamic environment may not support watch issuance over the next 1-2 hours, convective trends will be monitored for more significant upscale organization.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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