SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Likely
SUMMARY…A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains late this morning. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. A new weather watch will likely be needed across the region.
DISCUSSION…The latest surface analysis shows a quasistationary front located from western Kentucky extending southeastward into northern Georgia. Along and south of the boundary, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE values estimated in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. A line of training strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the instability gradient from middle Tennessee into northern Georgia. The WSR-88D VWP near the AL-TN stateline shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This combined with steepening low-level lapse rates late this morning will be favorable for severe storms capable of producing wind damage and isolated large hail. A new weather watch will be issued shortly.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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