SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 294…

SUMMARY…The threat of severe weather continues across a large area from AR to the OH river with multiple potential corridors of severe.

DISCUSSION…A strongly unstable and sheared air mass currently extends from AR to KY, and southward into MS and northern AL. The synoptic setup continues to be favorable tonight for continued development with cooling aloft and a jet max diving southeast out of MO. Currently, severe storms extend from the front along the OH river southward across eastern KY and TN where supercells were noted on radar. These storms are located near the eastern extent of the most unstable air, but are being supported by west/southwest low-level winds. Some of these cells may have tornado potential, along with large hail and damaging winds. The storms to the north along the OH river are more linear in mode, and clearly contain damaging wind potential. This line could potentially exhibit QLCS structure at times. To the west, a rapid increase of storms has occurred across central AR, and this cluster will likely persist into MS with mainly a damaging wind and hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out embedded within this line. Meanwhile, middle and western TN has remained free of storms except for a few showers earlier this evening that eventually turned into supercells across eastern TN. The environment over middle TN continues to be quite favorable, conditionally, for supercells, including the threat of tornadoes. However, there is currently little focus to initiate storms. That said, cooling aloft persists and there is little if any CIN. An earlier attempt at a storm was seen recently across southern middle TN, suggesting other attempts could follow this evening. Therefore, the area will remain under a tornado watch.

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