SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A brief tropical cyclone tornado or two will be possible as Tropical Storm Gordon approaches the Gulf Coast. While not immediately likely, convective trends are being monitored for a Tornado Watch should a greater threat materialize.

DISCUSSION…A rain shield along the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Gordon has inhibited stronger surface heating and associated buoyancy (including low-level CAPE, with values exceeding 100-150 J/kg in some spots) across portions of the Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi Panhandle areas. Still, as deeper ambient moisture continues to advect onshore, and low-level kinematic fields strengthen (as Gordon becomes a minimal Hurricane), an uptick in cellular organization, with transient low-level rotation and possibly brief tornadoes may be possible later this afternoon and evening. Discrete storms offshore within the right-front quadrant of Gordon have already shown signs of occasional, transient low-level rotation and this trend is expected to continue as Gordon moves ashore. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the threat, trends will continue to be monitored before the issuance of a Tornado Watch is considered.

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