Long Range Model Comparison
(Photo Credit: Tropical Tidbits, S-J Lin, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
As fall has begun and the leaves begin to change, so does the weather pattern on a large scale. This is a very volatile time for weather models. This article will look at the upper air pattern the ECMWF, GFS, and FV3-GFS (updated version) all develop along with the similarities and differences.
It is known from verification scores that the ECMWF more often than not scores higher than the GFS (a big part of this resides in the superior data assimilation, but this is a topic for another article). This was made clear as the ECMWF predicted the track of hurricane Florence days in advance while the GFS stuck with the idea that Florence would progress farther north and stall along the coast. However, the FV3-GFS had Florence near the southern North Carolina coast well before the GFS caved to this narrative. Is this sign of a significant improvement?
In retrospect, this is clearly a very complex pattern developing and these are only one run of each model (10 days in the future mind you) so although there are similarities in the two models, all three of these solutions are likely wrong on certain levels.
As winter approaches, it certainly will be interesting to see how the FV3-GFS handles the state of the atmosphere along with the tracks of these winter storms compared to the ECMWF. Something to keep an eye on and possibly become excited for depending on the verification of this model.
Be sure to stay tuned to GWCC for the latest on weather, climate, and winter weather here!
©2018 Meteorologist Joe DeLizio
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