SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 427…

SUMMARY…A brief tornado or strong wind gusts remain possible across eastern portions of the watch area, from southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle, but the overall threat for severe weather is likely to wane.

DISCUSSION…A broad zone of rain and thunderstorms persists ahead of a cold front from the mouth of the MS River into southern AL, in a zone of low-level warm advection supported by 30-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow. Low-level winds will continue to veer with time as the strongest lift shifts north of the region. For the near-term, a localized area of 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH exists in the vicinity of a warm front across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. The VWP at EVX radar does show sufficient shear to support a supercell, though the large-scale pattern with a positive-tilt trough and lack of heating is tending to minimize coverage of the stronger storms. As such, only isolated severe wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado are expected, and a new watch may not be required.

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