SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…An isolated wind-damage and tornado threat will likely develop this morning across parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance may be required.

DISCUSSION…Latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted upper-level trough over the Arklatex region. A well-developed low-level jet is located across the central Gulf Coast States and lower Mississippi Valley. This feature will result in strong moisture advection across the central Gulf Coast. In response, surface dewpoints and instability will gradually increase across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama this morning. The increasing low-level moisture and instability combined with strong deep-layer shear will make severe storm development possible. In addition, the Mobile, AL WSR-88D VWP in the warm frontal zone, has 0-3 km storm relative helicity of 500-550 m2/s2 with a long and looped hodograph. This may support tornado development with the discrete rotating storms that either move onshore or develop over land. The strongest of cells could also produce isolated damaging wind gusts.

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