SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will be possible into early evening. The duration and coverage of the threat appears too limited for watch issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION…A broken line of thunderstorms has recently developed across northern MS, perhaps in response to a subtle wave moving around the periphery of the occluding low over the central Plains. This broken line is now moving into northern AL and middle TN. While weak-to-moderate instability and very favorable wind profiles are otherwise supportive for a severe threat, very dry midlevel conditions (as noted on forecast soundings and GOES WV imagery) appear to be limiting updraft intensity thus far, and it remains uncertain if any of the storms will intensify to severe limits. However, a conditional risk of damaging wind/marginally severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado will exist with any cell that shows an uptick in intensity, particularly near the surface warm front across northern AL. Further north into middle TN, storms may tend to be somewhat elevated, with a localized hail/wind risk cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells. At this time, the coverage and duration of the threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

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