Weather Xtreme Video: Potential For Strong To Severe Storms Today
Radar at 7:08 this morning shows scattered showers over the eastern half of North/Central Alabama, with more moderate rain over the western half. The heavier showers were starting to move into the western portions of Jefferson and Shelby counties while the rain was starting to taper off for a little while in Tuscaloosa.
Looking across the southeast, we see that the line of storms that will move across the area today was back over Central Mississippi and down into south-central parts of Louisiana.
Currently, we have a wind advisory in effect for all of north and central Alabama through 7:00 pm this evening. A tornado watch is in effect for a good chunk of Mississippi and down into the eastern parts of Louisiana until 1:00 pm today.
The Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of Central Alabama in a Slight risk for severe storms throughout the day today, with all of North Alabama in a Marginal Risk. Main threats today will be from damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 MPH, but one or two brief spin-up tornadoes are also possible.
So for today, we have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area throughout the day and into the early evening hours, but the threat is conditional. We’ll have the shear and dynamics in place but the limiting factor will be the amount of instability that can work in here. Now it doesn’t take much at all to get storms started, but if it comes in less than forecast, it will be a line of rain with gusty winds. If it comes in as modeled or higher, then you can expect some stronger to severe storms to form. Just be sure to have your severe weather safety plan ready to go just in case your locations goes under a warning.
Timing on the threat of strong to severe storms will be from 10:00 am through 7:00 pm. The HRRR shows at 9:00 am that the main squall line should be knocking on the door of the western locations. By 2:00 pm, the line will have moved through the western parts of the area and should be located in the central parts, affecting the Birmingham metropolitan area. By 7:00 pm, the line of storms will have moved out of Central Alabama and into Georgia, ending the threat of severe weather.
Behind the front, we could have a few lingering showers and a few flurries possible through the remainder of the late night and into the first few hours on Sunday. No accumulations are expected so we should not have any travel issues at all. Winds will remain up in the 10-20 MPH range out of the northwest throughout the evening.
Today’s highs will top out in the lower 60s to the lower 70s across the area from north to south, with tonight’s lows dipping into the upper 20s to the mid-30s. Rainfall amounts throughout the day will be around 1-2 inches. While widespread flooding problems are not expected, we could have a few localized ponding or flooding issues in poor drainage areas.
On Sunday, we’ll have clearing skies with a brisk northwesterly wind around 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH at times. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 30s to the mid-50s across the area from northwest to southeast. Clear skies can be expected for the night time and overnight hours, with lows in the 20s. A few of the colder spots could briefly dip into the upper teens right before sunrise.
Monday will be a nice but cool day featuring plenty of sunshine and light winds. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s across the area from north to south.
On Tuesday, we’ll have another frontal system that will be getting its act together just off to our west with a low centered over northwestern Missouri. The day will start off mostly clear but clouds will start to move in by noon and we’ll have a chance of showers across the area by the evening before rain becomes likely during the late night and the overnight hours. Daytime highs will be in the lower 50s to the lower 60s across the area.
We’ll continue to have showers likely throughout the day on Wednesday as a low will be stationed just to our south over New Orleans. As the low moves northeastward and starts to lift the system out of the area, we could see a brief changeover to some snow flurries or sleet on the backside. Once again, no accumulations or travel issues are expected. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 50s to the upper 60s across the area from northwest to southeast.
We’ll still have a few showers lingering around during the morning hours on Thursday, but we should be dry by midday and skies will begin to clear during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the mid-40s to the mid-50s across the area from northwest to southeast.
Friday looks to be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the mid-40s to the lower 50s across the area from north to south.
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