SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A damaging wind or tornado risk may develop later this morning, and convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION…Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in coverage early this morning as a warm front lifts northward across MS. Recently, the JAN observation has warmed significantly, and this trend will continue across the remainder of central and eastern MS as well as western AL later today. Morning soundings from the region indicate the inversion above 700 mb has weakened, with a deepening of the moist boundary layer. Modified 12Z soundings indicate that low to mid 70s F temperatures will result in surface-based parcels, and shear profiles are favorable for supercells including a tornado risk with effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 in place. While diurnal heating will be limited due to clouds, continued warm advection and deeper ascent near the approaching cold front may support an increase in storm intensity primarily after 15Z, with a few supercells possible.

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