SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Storms are intensifying in west-central AL and at least one has exhibited weak/transient rotation indicative of a marginal supercell. Will monitor convective trends in the short term regarding the need for a tornado watch before the risk of severe weather increases later this evening.

DISCUSSION…A couple of storms have developed during the past 1-2 hours near the AL/MS border to the east of Meridian, MS and west of Tuscaloosa, AL. The storms have developed in the warm sector and seemingly due to both diurnal heating and within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. The thunderstorm activity will likely coincide with the diurnal heating cycle and it is possible this activity weakens with the onset of diurnal cooling. However, if 1 or 2 storms can become bootstrapped and become unequivocally surface-based, the transition to supercell would occur and a risk for a tornado or two may accompany these storms. This possible scenario is highly uncertain but there is greater confidence the severe risk will increase towards early evening as the thunderstorms over MS move into western AL.

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