SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 5… 6…

MesoScale Discussion | February 23, 2019 @ 5:02 pm

SUMMARY…Corridor of greatest tornado potential the next few hours will extend from far east-central MS into northwest/west-central AL and far south-central TN.

DISCUSSION…Radar trends over the last 30 minutes or so have indicated some strengthening in mid and low level storm rotation both in semi-discrete convection to the northwest of Meridian MS and further north associated with bowing line segment in Monroe County MS. Additional semi-discrete storms moving into far south-central TN also continue to show signs of rotation. Overall, storms appear to be struggling due to a weakness in storm relative flow in the low to mid levels. Additionally, stronger forcing for ascent remains well west/northwest of the region and height falls have generally been rather weak. All of these factors have impacted organization and longevity of intense convection. Convection currently moving out of eastern MS into western AL and south-central TN will encounter the best environment of the day, with regional VWP data indicating increased flow through the lowest 3km over over the last 30-60 min. Weak backed low level flow has also been noted in this narrow corridor as well. This should help to maximize low level shear in axis of greatest heating and instability. As such, the greatest severe threat, and tornado potential, will exit the next few hours, mainly across west-central into northwest AL and adjacent south-central TN. In fact, recent LSR from MEM confirmed a tornado had been sighted in Alcorn County.

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