SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with heavier downbursts located within an eastward propagating line. A WW issuance seems unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION…A relatively long-lived complex of multi-cellular convection persists across central Mississippi. Currently, no reports of measured severe winds or wind damage have been received, though a 43 knot wind gust was observed at 2055Z by the John Bell William Airport AWOS. While deep-layer/low-level shear and deep-layer ascent remain weak across central Mississippi and Alabama, the current line of storms is propagating along an axis of relatively richer sfc-850 mb moisture, where up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides. Current thinking is that the line of convection will continue to propagate eastward, driven primarily by a deepening cold pool. The aforementioned weak shear will likely result in short-lived individual updrafts embedded within the cluster, with new cells constantly regenerating ahead of the leading edge of the cold pool/outflow. A nearly saturated 925-850 mb layer, with PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches suggests that relatively intense wet downbursts remain possible for at least the next few hours, until the onset of nocturnal cooling. At least marginally severe wind gusts remain possible with the stronger downbursts. Given the lack of stronger shear/deep-layer ascent to support a wider spread wind damage threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely at this time.

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