SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…There will be a small window of opportunity for a brief tornado through about 12-13z.

DISCUSSION…An isolated supercell has evolved from convection along the trailing lobe of ascent related to an MCV from overnight convection (now near the northwest AL/TN border). A corridor of somewhat richer low-level moisture remains in tact this morning (mid 60s dewpoints across central AL), which is contributing to at least weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear are sufficient for supercells along the southeast flank of the MCV, which will move northeastward this morning. There will be a small window of opportunity for a brief tornado with the supercell (or new development) where the stronger vertical shear coincides with the north edge of the weakly unstable surface warm sector. Given the small area and somewhat marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated.

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