SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible for Southwest Alabama and Southeast Mississippi

| April 13, 2019 @ 8:26 pm

SUMMARY…Line embedded supercells currently in south central Mississippi are expected to move east with a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION…In the last hour, storms on the southern periphery of the confluence band in central Mississippi have started to strengthen. The strongest of these storms is currently entering Walthall county. The 00Z LIX sounding shows moderate instability with effective shear around 60 knots and 0-1 km SRH in excess of 450 m2/s2. This environment will support all severe hazards including the potential for tornadoes. Widespread convective development in this confluence band will likely lead to storm interference similar to the storms farther north, but there is the potential that storms could remain more discrete in this area which would support the tornado threat despite a slightly weaker wind field compared to areas farther north. If several sustained storms can materialize across southern Mississippi, an additional tornado watch may need to be issued in far southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.

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