SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 102…

| April 25, 2019 @ 11:49 am

SUMMARY…The threat for locally damaging winds and brief tornadoes continues within the watch area, and may increase this afternoon. Severe storms may eventually spread into southwestern Alabama, and this area will be monitored for watch potential.

DISCUSSION…Outflow from a dying MCS currently extends from western AL into southern MS, merging with the primary cold front into south-central LA. Ahead of these boundaries, storms associated with warm advection have periodically shown signs of being severe as they moved across the New Orleans area, now over coastal MS. Sufficient instability is in place over southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle to support a severe storm or two, should they maintain intensity. To the west, vigorous storms were ongoing along the cold front extending from central-southern LA across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some air mass recover is expected over southeast LA ahead of the frontal convection, and shear profiles will remain favorable for supercells capable of damaging wind or tornadoes with 0-1 SRH averaging 150-200 m2/s2.

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