SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Tornado Watch Likely

SUMMARY…Thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a weak tornado or two are possible this evening across the FL Panhandle. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 730pm EDT.

DISCUSSION…Radar imagery over the central Gulf Coast shows a quasi linear bowing segment with several small-scale circulations moving east in the near-shore waters south of Mobile Bay. The squall line will move east this evening across the northeast Gulf Coast as moisture advection/destabilization occurs ahead of the line. Surface analysis indicates dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s at the immediate coast near Tyndall AFB to the low-middle 60s near the GA/AL/FL border. Given the quality of moisture being highest near the coast, the severe and conditional tornado risk are likely going to focus near the coast this evening. Forecast soundings show a slight strengthening in the low-level wind profile during the next few hours which would be more supportive for low-level rotation. Farther north over southeast AL, weak/transient circulations have been observed via single site 88D imagery during the past 30-45 minutes. Although there is some risk for a strong/locally severe storm with activity on the northern edge of greater buoyancy, the current expectation is the drier boundary layer/weaker buoyancy will tend to limit the overall risk across southeast AL into southwest GA this evening.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions