SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Limited severe risk — mainly in the form of gusty/locally damaging winds — exists over portions of the southern Appalachians, though WW is not anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows a weak remnant convective circulation moving northeast across middle Tennessee, with a leading band of organized storms near the Tennessee/Georgia border. The storms are moving through an environment characterized by rather weak lapse rates aloft/modest instability (at or below 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and moderate deep-layer flow (low- to mid-level flow 20 to 30 kt from the west-southwest). Given limitations of both the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, severe risk should remain limited. However, given the linearly organized/weakly bowing nature of the convective band, and enhanced forward motion (east-northeast at around 30 kt), gusty winds, and some sporadic tree/limb damage appears possible. While WW is not anticipated in the short term, downstream/diurnal destabilization over the next several hours may support an increase in storm intensity, and corresponding potential need for WW issuance.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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