SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Linear segments will continue to move eastward across the area during the early afternoon hours. Some of the stronger segments will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION…A relatively small but organized MCS continues to move eastward across central Alabama at around 40 knots. Ahead of the MCS, ample afternoon insolation has promoted a moderately buoyant airmass, with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted. Shear however, remains modest, with effective bulk shear values generally under 35 knots noted. As such, questions remain regarding how much further organization may occur with the MCS, particularly with regards to an organized damaging wind threat. Further heating/insolation may promote further intensification of a few cells embedded within the MCS, which in turn may produce at least a few severe gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts amidst a very moist sfc-850 mb layer. However, the density of severe wind events warranting a WW issuance remains uncertain and as such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible further intensification and a subsequent need of a watch.

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