SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Recent surface analysis places a low just west of ANB (in east-central AL) with a warm front extending eastward across central GA into central SC. Another low is centered over far northeast MS (near TUP) with a surface trough extending eastward to the east-central AL low and then southwestward into far southern AL. Conditions ahead of the surface trough and south of the warm from over east-central/southeast AL and central/southwest GA are characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints in the low 70s, and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg for much of the region. In contrast to the favorable thermodynamic environment, winds throughout much of the troposphere are very weak (i.e. less than 25 kt through 300 mb) and the overall kinematic environment is unsupportive of organized thunderstorms. Consequently, a predominantly multicell mode is anticipated. A few of these storms may produce strong enough downbursts for isolated damaging wind gusts. Marginal and isolated nature of the threat will preclude the need for watch.

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