SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| June 18, 2019 @ 9:45 am

SUMMARY…Local risk for marginal hail, and a few damaging wind gusts, will continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast region late this morning and into this afternoon. Risk should remain isolated, with WW issuance not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows a cluster of storms moving east-northeast across southeast Mississippi at this time. The cluster of storms is ongoing in association with a center of circulation aloft, which is evident in morning WV imagery shifting out of Mississippi into Alabama. Slightly enhanced (around 30 kt) west-southwest flow aloft is observed across the region, on the southern side of the upper circulation — aiding in the observed 30 kt forward motion of the convection. Daytime heating is ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, where a relative lack of cloud cover is evident. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, the heating continues to permit gradual destabilization of the airmass downstream of the ongoing storms — with objective analysis now indicating 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE available. These factors suggest continuation of the semi-organized storm cluster, with locally gusty winds — and possibly marginal hail — expected. Given the marginal flow aloft however, with respect to organized storms, overall degree of risk appears limited such that WW is not anticipated at this time.

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