Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely To Our West

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and northeastern Louisiana. Here are the details from the Storm Prediction Center…

Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
08:03 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected…central and eastern AR…a small part of western TN…northern and west-central MS…far northeast LA

Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 200103Z – 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…A severe threat will likely continue east of Tornado Watch 401 into central and eastern portions of AR. The risk for severe storms may eventually move into western and northern parts of MS and adjacent states late this evening into the overnight.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a cluster of left-moving supercells over west-central AR with other thunderstorms near Texarkana. A marked difference in buoyancy is evident between the 00z Shreveport, LA raob and the 00z Jackson, MS raob (2600 J/kg vs. 400 J/kg MLCAPE). The gradient in CAPE is largely due to the eastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer and associated lapse rates. Current thinking is a severe threat will probably extend into central and eastern AR but with lower confidence of storm intensity/severe coverage near and east of the MS River. A mix of supercells and the stronger multicells would have an accompanying risk for large hail/damaging gusts.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather