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SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408… 409… 410…

| June 20, 2019 @ 6:17 pm

SUMMARY…The severe threat continues to shift quickly eastward across portions of North Carolina and South Carolina, while shifting more slowly southward across southern Georgia/southeastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION…Damaging wind gusts continue to be the primary threat with ongoing storms, which have generally congealed into elongated linear bands from eastern North Carolina southwestward to southwestern Georgia. The pre-convective environment remains moderate to strongly unstable, with strong deep shear (resulting from 40-kt mid-level flow) continuing to support storm/linear organization. Storms have reached coastal waters in eastern SC/NC over the past half hour, resulting in a diminished severe threat in adjacent upstream areas. Meanwhile in southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and vicinity, storms are taking on more of a southeastward component to motion and will spread through remaining portions of WWs 408 and 410 through the remainder of the evening. Behind this linear complex, convective overturning has stabilized the low-levels, and attendant portions of WWs 408 and 409 can be canceled early. Farther west into Alabama, storms have generally struggled to reach severe thresholds – probably being due to displacement from stronger lift/ascent aloft compared to areas northeast and weaker surface convergence. Should convective trends dictate, portions of WW 410 in southeast Alabama may also be canceled early.

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