SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms should increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk primarily for damaging winds. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible prior to 3 pm CDT/20Z.
DISCUSSION…A long-lived convective complex continues to move southeast at 30 kts across southeast MO/western KY at 19Z, with a well-established cold pool and substantial downstream heating/destabilization. Despite rather weak deep-layer shear, current expectations are for the leading edge convection to intensify over the next couple of hours with an increasing risk for damaging winds given strong to extreme instability and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible prior to 20Z/3 pm CDT.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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