An Afternoon Look at the Tropics: Looking for a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Lorenzo to Form Soon

TROPICAL STORM KAREN: Tropical Storm Karen formed this morning near the southern Windward Islands. It is located about 90 miles southwest of the island St. Vincent this afternoon. Top winds are 40 mph.

Since our newly minted tropical storm may have an eventual impact on Alabama’s weather, let’s take a look at how it might evolve. Tropical Storm Karen will move into the eastern Caribbean later tonight and move generally northward toward the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, etc.) on Tuesday. But by then, strong high pressure will be building to the north of the storm, which will cause it to slow down, and likely turn to the west. There are some signs that it could take a westward track toward the Gulf of Mexico.

COULD OUR RAINFALL RELIEF COME AS A RESULT? By October 3rd, a frontal system should be approaching Alabama from the northwest. By that time, moisture associated with the system that is Tropical Storm Karen should be over the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture, or some form of a tropical storm or tropical depression, could be pulled into Alabama. While it doesn’t look like any major rain event, it could provide an inch of rain or so. Hopefully. That won’t make much of a difference, but we will take what we can get.

LATEST ON JERRY: Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 450 miles south of Bermuda this afternoon. It has top winds of 65 mph. Moving NNW at 10 mph, it will pass just west of Bermuda on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds will reach the island on Tuesday morning and diminish by midnight Tuesday night.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form this afternoon or evening in the disturbance over the far eastern Atlantic. It will pass through the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Monday with winds and rain. Next name up on the list is Lorenzo.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical