Karen Weakening & Is Expected To Be A Remnant Low By Saturday

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…27.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward-moving trough in3 days or so as forecast by global models.

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