A Little Rain From Nestor Today, Strong To Severe Storms Possible On Monday

At 6:00 am this morning, radar shows some scattered shower activity on the eastern side of Central Alabama mainly over portions of Talladega, Calhoun, Clay, Cleburne, and Randolph counties, along with Chambers, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Bullock, Pike, and Barbour counties. These tropical showers are associated with Tropical Storm Nestor as it continues to move toward the Florida Gulf Coast. Speaking of Nestor… he is beginning to lose his tropical characteristics as the storm as a whole has elongated in more or a comma-shaped system.

As of 4:00 am, Nestor’s winds had dropped down to 50 MPH and the minimum pressure was back up to 998 MB. Tropical storm warnings are up from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown, Florida. Storm Surge warnings are up from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach.

Nestor is forecast to make landfall later this morning very close to Port St. Joe as forward motion continues to be to the northeast around 17 MPH. That motion should continue through the rest of the day and into the morning on Sunday before a turn to the east occurs late in the day. The center should move offshore off of the North Carolina coast late on Sunday as a post-tropical storm.

Storm surges of 1 to 5 feet are expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida east of Port St. Joe all of the way around to Clearwater and Tampa.

Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and will continue through this afternoon.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected this weekend across portions of the southeast with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches.

A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

So, for your Saturday in Central Alabama, we can expect most of the rain activity over the eastern half of the area. As you can see by the latest run of the GFS valid today at 1:00 pm, much of the activity will have pushed over into much of Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. Rain chances range from 30% to 80% across Central Alabama from west to east. Unfortunately, we are only expecting around 1/4 inch of rain and less across the area with the heavier totals well east of I-65. There will be a good bit of people who may not even see a raindrop today west of I-65. It will be a little breezy today, but the higher wind gusts should stay localized to the southeast corner of the area mainly south of I-85, where gusts up to 20-30 MPH are possible. Skies will be mostly cloudy to complete overcast with highs reaching the lower 60s to the lower 70s. We should be dry for late tonight and through the overnight hours with lows in the lower to mid-50s.

Sunday will be a much warmer day across Central Alabama as we’ll have warm air advection out ahead of an approaching cold front. Skies will start off mostly cloudy but will become mostly clear by the afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will get up into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Nestor will be moving off of the east coast and starting its eastward journey over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Now on Monday, we’ll have a strong cold front begin to move into the western parts of Central Alabama during the afternoon hours. The front will make it through the area and move into Georgia by the overnight hours. There will be just enough instability along with shear that there will be a threat of isolated damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado or two. The main window for strong to severe storms will be from 3:00 pm on Monday afternoon to 3:00 am Tuesday morning. A Slight Risk is up for locations west of a line from Hazel Green to Brookwood to Demopolis, while a Marginal Risk is up for much of the rest of North/Central Alabama. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Tuesday will be a much cooler day with clearing skies after the front has moved through the area. There may be a few lingering showers over the extreme eastern and southeastern parts of the area during the morning, but we’ll be all dry by the late morning hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday. We’ll have sunny skies and mild temperatures as highs will be up in the lower 70s.

On Thursday, the high will be moving out over the Atlantic and the next impulse will be starting to get its act together to the west of us. We’ll start off with clear skies, but clouds will begin to build late. Rain chances will start to increase during the night time hours with showers possible. Highs will be in the lower to mid-70s.

Friday will feature a good chance of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder across all of Central Alabama. Skies will mainly be cloudy and highs reaching the mid-60s to the lower 70s.

We’ll have updates on the blog throughout the day on Tropical Storm Nestor and on the potential for severe storms on Monday.

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