Rain Tomorrow Afternoon, Colder Friday

| November 6, 2019 @ 3:21 pm

DELIGHTFUL DAY: With sunshine in full supply, we have temperatures in the 70s across Alabama this afternoon. Enjoy it, because this will be the warmest day out of at least the next 10 days as a cold pattern becomes established. Clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a cold front.

RAIN RETURNS: Tomorrow will be a cloudy day with a high in the 60s; rain will push into North Alabama during the day ahead of the front. Looks like the main window for meaningful rain for North/Central Alabama will come from 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight, but we can’t rule out a few morning showers as well, mainly north of I-20. Rain amounts should be under 1/2 inch for most places, and I doubt if we have any thunder due to stable air in place.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky will be mostly sunny Friday, but the day will be breezy and much colder with a high between 50 and 55. Look for a low in the 28-33 degree range by daybreak Saturday with a clear sky.

The day Saturday will be sunny with a high around 60, and we reach the mid 60s Sunday with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday night, and that will represent the leading edge of the coldest air so far this season. New model runs are in, the now both global models (the American GFS and the European ECMWF) show a band of moisture ahead of the front, meaning we will need to mention a chance of rain Monday night. Then, on Tuesday, as the cold air rushes into the state, there is some evidence that the rain could briefly change to snow flurries or sleet before the precipitation ends. There is absolutely no skill in forecasting something like this six days in advance, but typically in a setup like this there is no impact from flurries, if we get them. Output from model ensembles suggests little in the way of meaningful frozen precipitation for now.

The big story is the cold air. Temperatures Tuesday could hold in the 30s all day over the northern half of the state, and by Wednesday morning as the sky clears, the low will be near 20. Colder pockets have a great chance of seeing upper teens. FYI… the record low for November 13 at Birmingham is 22 set in 1911… that 108 year old record could very well be in danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate over the latter half of the week… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold for the high school games Friday night with temperatures falling through the 40s.

Alabama hosts LSU Saturday in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff); the weather could not be any better for the biggest college game of the year. A sunny sky, temperatures will fall from near 61 at kickoff, into the mid 50s by the final whistle. Sunset Saturday in Tuscaloosa comes at 4:52p CT, so the fourth quarter will be played under the lights.

UAB will take on Southern Miss in Hattiesburg Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff); clear weather for the game with temperatures falling from near 66 at kickoff, to near 60 by the fourth quarter.

Jacksonville State will take on Tennessee Tech Saturday (1:30p CT kickoff) in Cookeville; the sky will be sunny with temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during the game.

ON THIS DATE IN 1977: The Kelly Barnes Dam, an earthen embankment dam located in Stephens County, Georgia, just outside the city of Toccoa, collapsed after heavy rainfall. The resulting flood killed 39 people and caused $2.8 million in damage. The dam was never rebuilt, and the Toccoa Falls downstream of the dam site is now a memorial and tourist attraction on the campus of Toccoa Falls College. After the flood, Georgia’s Governor George Busbee called for an immediate investigation, which was carried out by a Federal Investigative Board of the United States Geological Survey. Their report was released December 21, 1977, with no specific causes cited for the failure.

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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